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Strange how "loose form elliott"(LFE) corresponds at times with proper
elliott. LFE folks are imo saying its 5 of 5 of 5 pf 5 etc (or 4 of 5 of 5
etc) & will be heartened in the eventual ferocity of the markets decline
which will further lure them into beleiving the LFE approach.
Im not implying that SWP has such a "count" or opts for one methodology
or another , just that his post reminded me of what LFE practioners like
prechter will eventually string there counts up to be.......to their
eventual demise
Despite the strength of the rise from late last years lows, the
"elliott" high is not in place. There is a major distinction between
orthodox & elliott highs. Only after the elliott high is in place will/can
markets truely move........all else is a prelude only.
Do note the term "ferocious" in the next coming weeks. I do not use it
inadvertantly.
regards Peter
-----Original Message-----
From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, 23 January 1999 0:03
Subject: Re: SP500 Index Analysis
>To add to what Andre was saying, 8-Jan completed a three wave rally from
>the lows on 8-Oct on a perfect day count too. I had thought that, at the
>time, options expiry could save the market for a week, and that could
>not help. Better than expected earnings are not helping either. Bonds
>look set to run at 130 and euros to 95.37 (June). Lots of technicians
>will signal a major correction on a break of 1190 (cash s&p 500 index)
>which might add to troubles. My targets are a bit lower if 1190 breaks
>(1150 area) and I see risk (about 25%) down toward 1000.
>
>And, for those of you who are bullish and give me the 401K and IRA
>argument, just remember the 20% drop was in six weeks last summer (the
>first leg to 1-Sep) and six weeks would be to mid-Feb, leaving TWO
>MONTHS to put your money in for 401K if it took six weeks to go 20%
>again.
>
>Steve Poser
>
>--
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>http://www.poserglobal.com
>
>
>Andre Franklin wrote:
>>
>> Just thought I'd share a chart with you that implies the possible
>> beginnings of a bear market in the SP500 index from the Jan 8th peak in
>> the attached chart. The peak-peak cycles of 105 and 172 days form a
>> Golden ratio along an upward sloping trendline. The possibility of Jan
>> 8th as a major reversal point should be considered. Recent activity
>> implies that Jan 8th was the last wave of the major bull run from Oct
>> 8th. Personally, I expect to see a decline to at least 1170 in the
>> coming few weeks....and a possible decline to 1100 in 4-6 weeks.
>>
>> I don't have much time in this message to elaborate further on this
>> analysis...but I'd like to share it with my fellow RealTraders....for
>> what it's worth....
>>
>> Good trading!!!!
>>
>> Andre
>>
>> -----------------------------------------------------------------------
-
>> [Image]
>
>--
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>http://www.poserglobal.com
>
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