|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I apologize if this gets posted more than one time. But, after 8 hours,
there is no sign of my original attempt to post this.
Message-ID: <369C3CAD.2EC81A09@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tue, 12 Jan 1999 22:26:54 -0800
From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Reply-To: nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Organization: InfiNet
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win16; U)
MIME-Version: 1.0
To: gmkramer@xxxxxxxxxxxx
CC: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Scalping Help!
References: <031801be3e65$a0ef2a00$02928318@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="------------9F35B793CD057BACB7D76431"
<x-html><HTML>
<BODY BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF">
<P>Gary Kramer wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE> <I><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>I have
been day trading Spoos for about 5.5 months now and have a dilemma.
When I first started out, I scalped the market and made 1-2 points per
trade and was making money consistently. I was using retracements
as the basis for my trades. Everything I read and everyone I listened
to suggested that in order to succeed, i needed to let profits run.
I noticed that I left a lot on the table so I investigated a whole bunch
of other systems. Nonetheless, even though the systems worked, they
did not work for me. I just couldnt let my profits run and I wasnt
good at implementing the strategies. My confidence soured and I reverted
back to the scalping to get my equity and confidence back. Again,
I tried other strategies and failed. I am back to scalping
and feel real good about it. I have a friend who guarantees that
I will fail if i scalp. I have looked back at hundreds of charts
and recognize that based on my strategy of buying or selling pullbacks,
the success rate is near 80% with objectives of 1.5-2 points. The
question is: can I make money? I have done so, am doing so
now, but its bothering me that this buddy of mine insists that it cant
be done.</FONT></FONT></I><I><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>
BTW, I always have a 2 point stop in!</FONT></FONT></I> <I><FONT SIZE=-1>Any
words of wisdom would be most appreciated!</FONT></I> <I><FONT SIZE=-1>Thanks</FONT></I>
<P><I><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Gary Kramer,</FONT></FONT></I>
<BR><I><FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1> </FONT></FONT></I></BLOCKQUOTE>
<FONT SIZE=+2>This is all about psychology
and how one feels about oneself. Someone who has to be right a high percentange
of the time is someone who needs constant re-inforcement that they are
alright, i.e. a good person. But, which of the following is better:
Is it better to make A. $2, 80% of the time or B. to make $6,
60% of the time, or C. make $10, 40% of the time? Assuming that the
losses are the same for each profile, the answer is C. which has the lowest
winning percentage because the probability times the expected value
= the risk adjusted value or in this case 40% x $10 = $4 vs risk adjusted
values for A. = $1.60, and B. $3.60.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2> People who have trouble
with this concept are often victims of the educational system which teaches
that the key to be successful is being right. One can see from the above
example how wrong that can be. The true paradign for trading is that</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2>IT'S OK BE BE WRONG, JUST DON'T BE WRONG FOR LONG.
So, now one must make a philosophical decision as to what is more important,
being right or making money. If profit is the ultimate goal and not ego
then one will adapt to having a smaller percentage of winning trades in
exchange for more money over time on the bottomline. To do this,
for an experiment, see what happens on a minimum trade size, say a one
lot, see what happens if you double your profit target, i.e. rather than
going for $2, go for $4. Then keep track of both systems and see
which one over several months is more profitable.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2> Now, one last suggestion to Gary and a few
others on this list.</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2>Last time I was tested, I had perfect eye sight and didn't
need glasses. However, apparently when one posts on this list with a</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2>10 point or smaller type and bunch it all together,
it becomes very hard to read, barring my getting right on top of my 17"
monitor and risking electro-magnetic radiation (no joke, I have tested
my monitor for this.) Anyway, I would appreciation if you could increase
your font to at least 12 points. This note is in 18 points to give
my eyes a rest from the last few micro typers.</FONT><FONT SIZE=+2></FONT>
<P><FONT SIZE=+2>Diagnostically,</FONT><FONT SIZE=+2></FONT>
<P><FONT SIZE=+2>Norman - the trading doctor</FONT>
<BR><FONT SIZE=+2></FONT>
</BODY>
</HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Jan 13 05:26:45 1999
Received: from list.listserver.com (198.68.191.15)
by mail05.rapidsite.net (RS ver 1.0.2) with SMTP id 18922
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Wed, 13 Jan 1999 06:17:11 -0500 (EST)
Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by accessone.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/PIH) with SMTP id DAA21187;
Wed, 13 Jan 1999 03:11:07 -0800 (PST)
Received: from mailhost.dircon.co.uk (mailhost.dircon.co.uk [194.112.32.65])
by accessone.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/PIH) with ESMTP id DAA21028
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Wed, 13 Jan 1999 03:09:31 -0800 (PST)
Received: from NADINE (th-en137-059.pool.dircon.co.uk [194.112.55.59])
by mailhost.dircon.co.uk (8.9.1/8.8.7) with SMTP id LAA14437;
Wed, 13 Jan 1999 11:09:14 GMT
Message-Id: <01be3ee5$592ce560$03c864c0@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wed, 13 Jan 1999 11:10:37 -0000
Reply-To: jens@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: "Jens Kristianson" <jens@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Future: Turtle Strategy
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-To: <hamerjp@xxxxxxxx>
X-Cc: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
X-Priority: 3
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.71.1712.3
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.71.1712.3
X-Listprocessor-Version: 8.1 -- ListProcessor(tm) by CREN
X-Loop-Detect: 1
X-UIDL: ca35cbfb8665767527574f5f66652d86
Jim,
Have a look in Jack Schwagers book the New Market Wizards. It is an
interesting interview with a few "Turtles" that gives you a bit background
to the Turtle techniques. I also highly recommend Jack Schwagers books,
very inspiring to read.
Regards,
Jens
-----Original Message-----
From: Jim Hamer <hamerjp@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: 13 January 1999 06:20
Subject: Future: Turtle Strategy
>I visited turtletrader.com and thought the site was pretty interesting.
>Has anyone had any experience with the program they are selling? -
>
>"Turtle Secrets Revealed" - Sounds like a good ad for the Discovery
>Channel.
>
>But seriously, what little I know about these strategies: trend
>following, using multiple time frames, with exit strategies sometimes
>tied to volatility and not necessarily trend change. It seems like
>there is a lot of funds under management using this approach: Bill Dunn,
>John W. Henry, Jerry Parker (Chesapeake Capital) to name a few.
>
>Yen Watching,
>Jim Hamer
|