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Norman,
In your analysis you picked a bottom of 924.92 which occured on 12/19/97
although there were two lower bottems which would have been more logical
The bottom of 912.83 on 1/12/98 and the bottom of 855.27 on 10/28/97. Could
you share the logic of picking the bottom you did? Are they related with
aspects of Jupiter-Sun as is 1/15/99?
Inquireingly,
Jim White
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> From: nwinski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: Markets
> Date: Wednesday, January 06, 1999 10:43 PM
>
>
>
> Ira wrote:
>
> > It looks like the March SnP could hit the 1279.80 target today. Right
> > now at 1278, I would say that it was a good call. The index went
through
> > the 1257 target and could be on the way to the next target of 1273.60.
> > There are currently signs that a retracement should occur. There is
> > still no count to the down side. The CBOE put/call ratio is at an
> > extreme .53 and yet the OEX put/call ratio is in the middle of its
> > range. As targets are reached, stops should be tightened to preserve
> > profits. good trading. Ira
> >
> > The above are not recommendations to buy or sell and are only
> > observations and calculations by the author.
>
> Ira,
> Enough of the key prices every 5 - 10 dollars on the SPX. That sort
of
> thing only leads to analysis
> paralysis. Here's the deal: The July '98 high was approx. 1191, the
> succeeding low was 924 for a range of 267. Since the 1191 high has been
> significantly exceeded, take the previous range of 267 dollars and
multiply
> times 1.618 (which = 432) added to the low of 924 = 1356. So 1356 on
the
> SPX is the next major level we should expect the SPX to go to and where
I
> would next consider selling. Until the market proves othewise,
everything
> else between now and 1356 is NOISE. The major key levels are the musical
> notes and the in between intervals are noise. The way to make money is
to
> ignore
> the noise and play the music. The end of the current musical phrase is
due
> circa the Jan. 15 weekend,
> so a sharp move up to the SPX 1356 level into the Jan. 15 weekend would
be
> the next time and price
> to consider a short term high for SPX. If it doesn't come out that way,
> then I was wrong about the current tune (ala name that tune) and so I
> wouldn't bet any money. If the pattern does develop per my
> above projection, and the option sentiment at that time is excessively
> bullish, then you can sell against 1356 and only risk about 1% of the
> underlying value i.e. about $14 for a chance to make 100 - 150 SPX
dollars.
>
> Musically,
>
> Norman
>
>
>
>
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