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[Quoth the THE DOCTOR:]
>
> The percentage of options going off-line as closing trades has been a bit
> higher month to date....this would allow one to conclude that a good portion
> of these users have in fact been successful. Drawing a conclusion as to
> "were they lucky or smart" is impossible. I'm anxious to see what
> expiration week activity looks like. At this point if the market stays up I
> would venture a very low percentage of options will go off worthless. At
> the point I wouldn't be too surprised to see the number in the mid 20%
> area...which would be a remarkably low value.
I was trying to inspire creation of an indicator :-). One of the classics
in stock analysis is the specialist short sales ratio, which is the
ratio of short sales by specialists to those of the general public or
something like that. The theory is that the specialists short when the
market is about to go down, being "smart money", and the public has no
clue so they short when the market is about to go up. That was the
original motivation behind using a put/call ratio as a contrary
indicator. Put buying was supposed to be "stupid money" and call buying
"smart money".
--
znmeb@xxxxxxxxxxxx (M. Edward Borasky) http://www.teleport.com/~znmeb
If God had meant carrots to be eaten cooked, He would have given rabbits
fire.
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