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Ira wrote:
> It looks like the March SnP could hit the 1279.80 target today. Right
> now at 1278, I would say that it was a good call. The index went through
> the 1257 target and could be on the way to the next target of 1273.60.
> There are currently signs that a retracement should occur. There is
> still no count to the down side. The CBOE put/call ratio is at an
> extreme .53 and yet the OEX put/call ratio is in the middle of its
> range. As targets are reached, stops should be tightened to preserve
> profits. good trading. Ira
>
> The above are not recommendations to buy or sell and are only
> observations and calculations by the author.
Ira,
Enough of the key prices every 5 - 10 dollars on the SPX. That sort of
thing only leads to analysis
paralysis. Here's the deal: The July '98 high was approx. 1191, the
succeeding low was 924 for a range of 267. Since the 1191 high has been
significantly exceeded, take the previous range of 267 dollars and multiply
times 1.618 (which = 432) added to the low of 924 = 1356. So 1356 on the
SPX is the next major level we should expect the SPX to go to and where I
would next consider selling. Until the market proves othewise, everything
else between now and 1356 is NOISE. The major key levels are the musical
notes and the in between intervals are noise. The way to make money is to
ignore
the noise and play the music. The end of the current musical phrase is due
circa the Jan. 15 weekend,
so a sharp move up to the SPX 1356 level into the Jan. 15 weekend would be
the next time and price
to consider a short term high for SPX. If it doesn't come out that way,
then I was wrong about the current tune (ala name that tune) and so I
wouldn't bet any money. If the pattern does develop per my
above projection, and the option sentiment at that time is excessively
bullish, then you can sell against 1356 and only risk about 1% of the
underlying value i.e. about $14 for a chance to make 100 - 150 SPX dollars.
Musically,
Norman
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