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Douglas and friends,
Your comments are well received. However, the intent of my post is to
illustrate that current market conditions have most likely factored in
'much of the good news', as seen by the speculative and feverous frenzy of
buying on a daily basis.
Further, I am still quite optimistic on the US equity market with
expectations of Dow 10,000 during the 1st quarter of '99. However, as I
mentioned, todays' (and the last few weeks) frenzy worries me...a little.
Personally, as a trader, I will look to sell into the rally and then use
small pullbacks (several hundred Dow points) to reenter the market,
hopefully at a time when PESSIMISIUM is abound.
Thanks,
John Boggio
At 12:46 PM 12/22/98 +0000, Douglas Meakin wrote:
>Dear Sirs
>
>I have been watching the discussions about reported earnings for this
>quarter being less than expectations and why that may mean a correction for
>the stock market. I can only comment on what has happened at the company I
>work for to illustrate why this line of thinking is very misguided at least
>and positively dangerous. The company I work for is followed by many
>analysts.
>
>We just reported a very poor 4th quarter, in fact the first quarterly loss
>for many many years. The loss was due to heavy restructuring charges and
>very bad business conditions. The key fact, however, is that the company is
>now resized to meet future business conditions. This is a cycle and in my
>industry we have been through a very real and damaging cycle and now we are
>coming out of it.
>
>I know what our expected earnings are and I know that they are pretty
>realistic. In many of our customers confidence is turning up and the Asian
>thing is sorting itself out a bit. I think our own stock price has between
>50 and 100% appreciation over the next 18 months assuming the PE ration
>doesn't go to hell (I see no reason YET why it will. I am a strong buyer.
>
>Yes there have been plenty or earnings disasters in Q4 but buyers now are
>looking out. I am a buyer based on the real information I have at hand.
>
>Respectfully
>
>Douglas Meakin
>
>
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