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Consider that many House members appear to be willing to take a stand on
principal which is clearly contrary to public opinion. I think it would be a
mistake to assume that the Senate will acquit on a party line vote. Consider
that the Senate serves the role of Jury, that the public takes jury duty
seriously, and that the Senate considers itself to be more deliberative and
serious than the House. Most Senators consider themselves to the at the
pinnacle of their careers and are unlikely to be swayed by public opinion
when viewing a matter of such serious proportions. There is no provision or
tradition of plea bargaining the impeachment process and I doubt that the
Senate would allow itself to be sullied by such a procedure - expect a trial
and an up or down vote based on more than politics. Further, consider that
a) the public does not want the status quo (prosperity) changed, b) the
public generally believes the President is amoral or worse, and c) the
public wants the President to be punished in some manner. Thus, one should
not read unqualified and unlimited public support for the President into the
poll readings.
I suspect that the dynamics of this entire process as well as public
perception will undergo a radical change as the process moves from
indictment by the House to trial by the Senate. I would rate the odds of
resignation as far higher than 50/50. I vividly recall Nixon denying any
intention to resign right to the very end. Consider further that the
Clintons must look forward to the day when they will leave office. They will
surely need the pension and office support privileges which are denied to
ex-presidents who have been impeached. Not to mention the fact that they
will need to find a way to earn livings and pay off millions in debt.
Now look forward from that point and the outcome (Clinton or Gore) probably
will have little impact upon domestic or foreign policy. It is many of those
outside the US who will not fully understand this and may very well have a
prolonged aversion to US markets until the smoke clears.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: charles meyer <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Friday, December 18, 1998 1:49 PM
Subject: Fw: Current Events and the Markets - LONG POST
>> Impeachment Proceedings:
>>
>> Even though the analysis of military operations and the markets above
>seem to
>> favor the odds of an increase, it's difficult to say what effect an
>> impeachment proceeding may have because we've never had one in our
>lifetimes.
>> It seems to me the markets have already assumed that a vote for
>impeachment
>> will be approved and go to the Senate where it will not pass the 2/3 vote
>> needed. Yesterday's IBD had some statistics showing how stocks have
>reacted
>> to recent crises (some of the S+P returns may be off a couple percentage
>> points as I interpolated them from graphs):
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