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As an update to earlier remarks, attached is a daily chart of the spoo. The
bear channel is almost horizontal, so we need to take out the heavy 2 stddev
boundary now at 1158 before we get any significant move to downside. If 2
stddev is taken out, we have 3 targets, the first of which, at 114150, is
very close to the 3 stddev channel boundary.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Earl Adamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Wednesday, December 09, 1998 6:46 AM
Subject: Re: tbonds/march
>It looks like we are starting the third thrust up from 11/6 lows with a
>minimum price objective of 131^20 and second objective of 133^08. Either of
>these will take out the (back adjusted) 10/16 pivot high at 130^29
>suggesting that the nasty reversal on the monthly may have been a liquidity
>driven aberration. I hadn't noted the flag, but it too looks bullish and
>would give us a projection to 133^08.
>
>Looking over at the spoo, which is what I day trade, we had some nasty
>technical damage on the 30 minute led by a Wyckoff thrust off the top and
>prospects of at least one more decline from whatever intraday high we
>complete today. Looks like setups for the two to counter trend. Given the
>fact that I don't see much major technical damage in the indexes plus good
>seasonals, I imagine we can look forward to both reversing direction a bit
>later in the month. I've also noticed that the Ru2000 has built a very
tight
>cup and handle beginning in early November and appears poised to rally
>aggressively as long as the handle holds during this correction.
>
>Earl
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
>To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, December 08, 1998 9:28 PM
>Subject: Re: tbonds/march
>
>
>>Robin:
>>
>>One never knows for sure, but odds are for early follow through higher
>>(market is up on Globex despite a strong rally off of the lows in shares),
>>followed by weakness and a stronger close. Generally speaking the decline
>>from last weeks high formed a low volume flag pattern that the market
broke
>>out of yesterday at approx. 129.10. Hopefully the market will give you a
>>bit of down and a decent retracement to buy against and then get up and go
>>again. Of course you will have to monitor the action as it unfolds and as
>>has been the case over the last few months... the shares will have a huge
>>impact. If you are trading bonds and don't have either a Dow or S&P chart
>>up next to it you are making a mistake.
>>
>>Anyway, my trading plan for the day revolves around buying the dip. If I
>>don't get a well behaved dip and a subsequent thrust to trigger me in....
I
>>guess Ill spend the day watching "Wheel of Fortune."
>>
>>By the way, don't get me wrong, I set up a bond plan each and every day.
>>If the day unfolds in the way I had hoped...great, if not, hopefully a low
>>risk opportunity will develop. I don't live and die by my plan, but when
it
>>comes together it makes pulling the trigger and reacting a lot easier.
>>
>>
>>Stewart Taylor
>>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
>>Voice: 501-219-9774
>>Fax: 501-228-0963
>>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
>>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
>
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