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They are looking for the magic, not the knowledge or ability. Ira
<P>nwinski wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE>
<P>Dennis L. Conn wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE> <FONT SIZE=-1><FONT COLOR="#000000">Thanks
to all those who responded to my request for input on Vantage Point; the
unanimous verdict is that they seem to be 'factually challenged', to say
the least. My friend has decided to face reality and won't be buying it.</FONT>Now
on to something I'm personally interested in that makes no claims of being
the Holy Grail; Fibonacci Trader software seems to be a fairly priced and
very good analysis package, and I'd appreciate whatever feedback anyone
can offer, especially regarding the real-time version.</FONT> <FONT SIZE=-1>Thanks,</FONT>
<FONT SIZE=-1>Dennis C.</FONT> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>dconn@xxxxxxxxx</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
Dennis,
<BR> As for as Fibonacci stuff goes, about two weeks ago, I
posted just about everything you need to know for free right here on RT.
I also offered to tutor folks, saying that I could teach the whole enchillada
in about 5 minutes over the telephone assuming you own a $5 pocket calculator.
I had one person exrpress interest in this. When I suggested that I get
$25 for my time, they dissappeared. Funny huh?
<BR>Folks can't wait to spend thousands on some real purdy computer program
which does the same thing they can do on a cheap calculator. Just goes
to show that most folks go for that sizzle and don't care about the steak.
<P>Spiralling,
<P>Norman
<BR> </BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Dec 09 12:59:30 1998
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<P>Dennis L. Conn wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Thanks
to all those who responded to my request for input on Vantage Point; the
unanimous verdict is that they seem to be 'factually challenged', to say
the least. My friend has decided to face reality and won't be buying it.</FONT></FONT><FONT SIZE=-1>Now
on to something I'm personally interested in that makes no claims of being
the Holy Grail; Fibonacci Trader software seems to be a fairly priced and
very good analysis package, and I'd appreciate whatever feedback anyone
can offer, especially regarding the real-time version.</FONT> <FONT SIZE=-1>Thanks,</FONT> <FONT SIZE=-1>Dennis
C.</FONT> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>dconn@xxxxxxxxx</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
Dennis,
<BR> As for as Fibonacci stuff goes, about two weeks ago, I
posted just about everything you need to know for free right here on RT.
I also offered to tutor folks, saying that I could teach the whole enchillada
in about 5 minutes over the telephone assuming you own a $5 pocket calculator.
I had one person exrpress interest in this. When I suggested that I get
$25 for my time, they dissappeared. Funny huh?
<BR>Folks can't wait to spend thousands on some real purdy computer program
which does the same thing they can do on a cheap calculator. Just goes
to show that most folks go for that sizzle and don't care about the steak.
<P>Spiralling,
<P>Norman
<BR>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Wed Dec 09 21:09:00 1998
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Subject: Re: Trading System Design
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My answers below. Steve Poser (i do not use mechanical systems, but used
to design them)
JerryS wrote:
>
> note-I am having email problems so if this was already received,
> please disregard
>
> I would like to start a discussion about the different aspects of
> designing a successful trading system. I recently purchased Tradestation
> and have spent countless hours trying to program what i thought until
> now were profitable patterns and strategies. Tradestation has really
> opened my eyes that what you see is not what it seems. For instance,
> most of my ideas make consistent profits in bull and bear markets with
> very little peak to valley equity drawdown WITHOUT commissions, but as
> soon as commissions are applied, the equity gets eaten to death in the
> sideways markets. I am mostly interested in stocks/indices since i
> havent
> tried futures yet, and up until now (2 years) i have mostly traded
> discretionarily using a hodgpodge of geometry/patterns/time cycles/
> Fib/momentum etc. and the inconsistency of my results is what has
> steered me towards a mechanical system.
> I have a few questions for some of the more experienced traders here
> and hopefully some of the answers will spark some discussion or a
> friendly debate. I would greatly appreciate some input from the more
> statistically oriented traders Walt, BobR, Ira, Ben, etc.
>
> 1) Do Mechanical Systems work for a small account ie.$12000?
> Some of my systems work great if i were trading big money with low
> commissions. NEVER TRIED TO TRADE THAT. I WAS ALWAYS LONGER TERM POSITIONAL AND THAT PROB WOULD MEAN TOO MUCH DRAWDOWN. CSI HAS A GOOD PROGRAM THAT TESTS WHAT KIND OF CAPITAL YOU NEED BASED ON TESTED RESULTS.
>
> 2) Does anyone here trade pure Mechanical, or do most mix Mechanical
> with other techniques? It seems alot of traders use elliot/fib which
> are excellent techniques but impossible to mechanize, am i wasting
> my time/ missing half of the profit if i try to go pure mechanical?
NOTHING WRONG WITH TRADING PURE MECHANICAL. I DONT, BUT THAT IS MY
STYLE. IF U CAN DEAL WITH IT, THAT IS GREAT IMHO. IF YOU FOLLOW IT, IT
REMOVES THE EMOTIONS WHICH IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST MONEY LOSING PROBLEMS
AS IT IS.
>
> 3) How much history do i need to test properly, 25? 50? 100 years?DEPENDS WHAT U R DOING. I'D SAY FOR A DAILY SYSTEM AT LEAST FIVE YEARS AND PREFERABLY 10. OPTIMIZE ON 5 AND TEST "OUT OF SAMPLE" WITH THE NEXT 5. IF YOU DO FUTURES, U WILL NEED TO ROLL OVER AND ADJUST CONTRACTS, BUT I THINK U SAID U WILL DO STOX.
>
> 4) There was recently some talk of trade to rule ratio, some of my
> systems are rather complex, does this mean they'll have less of a
> chance of working? YES BECAUSE U R BASICALLY CURVE FITTING. EACH RULE REMOVES ONE DEGREE OF FREEDOM. THE MORE RULES, THE MORE HISTORY YOU NEED.
>
> 5) I've developed a system that works very well with one of the DOW30
> stocks with consistent equity growth over 15 years including the
> recent downturn. The system does not work on the other stocks.
> Is it reasonable to have different systems for different stocks
> or will this system eventually fail? Should a good system work
> across all markets? THIS IS OPINION. DIFFERENT STOX HAVE DIFFERENTG CHARACTERISTICS, BUT IF A SYSTEM WORKS ON ONLY ONE STOCK, IT IS PROBABLY NOT TOO GOOD.
>
> 6) this is kind of a weird question, if a system could be made
> consistently profitable by lowering it's commission costs(stocks),
> could a similar result be attained by using the system to trade
> ITM options? IF A SYSTEM IS THAT CLOSE TO BEING A LOSER THAT COMMISSIONS MAKE THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE (UNLESS U R COMPARING FULL SERVICE VS $8), THEN IT PROB IS NOT A REAL STRONG WINNER. REMEMBER, IN OPTIONS U R DEALING WITH TWO UNKNOWNS - PRICE AND VOLATILITY, THE SECOND OF WHICH YOUR SYSTEM IS NOT ANALYZING, SO I DONT THINK THAT THIS FOLLOWS THAT IT WILL WORK WELL WITH OPTIONS NECESSARILY.
>
> 7) Should i test my exits before my entries? I TEST THE WHOLE SYSTEM TOGETHER.
>
> I express my sincere thanks in advance to any
> who wish to comment on this topic,
> Jerry
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