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It looks like we are starting the third thrust up from 11/6 lows with a
minimum price objective of 131^20 and second objective of 133^08. Either of
these will take out the (back adjusted) 10/16 pivot high at 130^29
suggesting that the nasty reversal on the monthly may have been a liquidity
driven aberration. I hadn't noted the flag, but it too looks bullish and
would give us a projection to 133^08.
Looking over at the spoo, which is what I day trade, we had some nasty
technical damage on the 30 minute led by a Wyckoff thrust off the top and
prospects of at least one more decline from whatever intraday high we
complete today. Looks like setups for the two to counter trend. Given the
fact that I don't see much major technical damage in the indexes plus good
seasonals, I imagine we can look forward to both reversing direction a bit
later in the month. I've also noticed that the Ru2000 has built a very tight
cup and handle beginning in early November and appears poised to rally
aggressively as long as the handle holds during this correction.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Stewart Taylor <staylor@xxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, December 08, 1998 9:28 PM
Subject: Re: tbonds/march
>Robin:
>
>One never knows for sure, but odds are for early follow through higher
>(market is up on Globex despite a strong rally off of the lows in shares),
>followed by weakness and a stronger close. Generally speaking the decline
>from last weeks high formed a low volume flag pattern that the market broke
>out of yesterday at approx. 129.10. Hopefully the market will give you a
>bit of down and a decent retracement to buy against and then get up and go
>again. Of course you will have to monitor the action as it unfolds and as
>has been the case over the last few months... the shares will have a huge
>impact. If you are trading bonds and don't have either a Dow or S&P chart
>up next to it you are making a mistake.
>
>Anyway, my trading plan for the day revolves around buying the dip. If I
>don't get a well behaved dip and a subsequent thrust to trigger me in.... I
>guess Ill spend the day watching "Wheel of Fortune."
>
>By the way, don't get me wrong, I set up a bond plan each and every day.
>If the day unfolds in the way I had hoped...great, if not, hopefully a low
>risk opportunity will develop. I don't live and die by my plan, but when it
>comes together it makes pulling the trigger and reacting a lot easier.
>
>
>Stewart Taylor
>Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
>Voice: 501-219-9774
>Fax: 501-228-0963
>E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
>Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
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