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I think the price of just about everything is lower than in the 1970s when
adjusted for inflation.
But I did recall seeing some interesting data last year on crude oil.
It is true that the price of crude oil has been (and is) in serious
decline. YET, refining capacity remains relatively steady and was under
serious pressure until, of course, the recent Asian meltdown.
After all, a barrel of crude is a wonderful thing to have (!) but if you
can't "crack" it into its useful components (heating oil and gasoline), you
won't be able to use it. Few significant refineries are on the drawing
boards. (Do you want one in your backyard?) So if the Asian economies can
get moving again, there may be some upward pressure on component prices
even as crude prices drift lower or remain steady.
>RT's,
>
>
>This discusion has been interesting reading. If trading has got little to do
>with economics then I'd say that one ought to quit trading. My education in
>economics comes mostly from the school of hard knocks but I did take a class
>in college. So I've heard of diminishing returens, supply and demand etc.
>
>There is the Macro view of economics and then there is Micro views of
>economics and many degrees of scale in between those two. The markets exibit
>the same Macro/Micro trime frames. For example a monthy or even yearly chart
>should reflect the Macro economy, and intra-day the micro.
>
>Within the economic picture I think that if you removed two or three
>princile developements we wouldn't recognize the world. For example we have
>been using crude oil on a massive scale now for about 100 years. Right now
>crude oil is super cheap; less then it was when I bought gas for .25 a
>gallon in the 70's if adjusted for inflation. Very few things these days
>don't utilize oil in some way. Take away the use of oil, the developement of
>hydrolics, the advent of computing and we would virtually all be saying
>"giddy up". I'm watching oil prices(along with other prices) to signal a
>change in world trends.
>
>The one thing that we should learn in trading is that it takes a substancial
>change in fundamentals to change the dirrection of a trend. Short term blips
>that are against the trend are usually sucker bait.
>
>I'll be very surprised if this bullish scenero can go on as long as some are
>saying but until I know different the trend is up.
>
>Brent
>
>
>> This discussion has deviated substantially from trading, & i thinkit
>>best to leave it there
>>Regards
>> Peter Karaguleski [KKD]
>>Krueger Klage Derivatives
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