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RT's,
This discusion has been interesting reading. If trading has got little to do
with economics then I'd say that one ought to quit trading. My education in
economics comes mostly from the school of hard knocks but I did take a class
in college. So I've heard of diminishing returens, supply and demand etc.
There is the Macro view of economics and then there is Micro views of
economics and many degrees of scale in between those two. The markets exibit
the same Macro/Micro trime frames. For example a monthy or even yearly chart
should reflect the Macro economy, and intra-day the micro.
Within the economic picture I think that if you removed two or three
princile developements we wouldn't recognize the world. For example we have
been using crude oil on a massive scale now for about 100 years. Right now
crude oil is super cheap; less then it was when I bought gas for .25 a
gallon in the 70's if adjusted for inflation. Very few things these days
don't utilize oil in some way. Take away the use of oil, the developement of
hydrolics, the advent of computing and we would virtually all be saying
"giddy up". I'm watching oil prices(along with other prices) to signal a
change in world trends.
The one thing that we should learn in trading is that it takes a substancial
change in fundamentals to change the dirrection of a trend. Short term blips
that are against the trend are usually sucker bait.
I'll be very surprised if this bullish scenero can go on as long as some are
saying but until I know different the trend is up.
Brent
> This discussion has deviated substantially from trading, & i thinkit
>best to leave it there
>Regards
> Peter Karaguleski [KKD]
>Krueger Klage Derivatives
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