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<DIV>Ira,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Thanks for the interest ... </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>What I outlined in the Soybean and Corn this morning was one of my ways of
trading some research that was done by Thomas Drinka at Western Illinois
University. The Research was on the "traditional pivot" and its
3 resistance and 3 support zones. The only thing that was considered was
where the open was (which of the six zones) and where the close was relative to
the open ... this is about as simple as it gets.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>You can view this research on the Pivot (focal point) at his CHAPTER 10
Support and Resistance article at: <A
href="http://www.ecnet.net/users/miag/facstaff/tpd/researc.htm";>http://www.ecnet.net/users/miag/facstaff/tpd/researc.htm</A></DIV>
<DIV><A
href="http://www.ecnet.net/users/miag/facstaff/tpd/rescha10.htm";>http://www.ecnet.net/users/miag/facstaff/tpd/rescha10.htm</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Table Two of the Support and Resistance article summarizes the trade
potential. In Soybean the Win Percentage was 33% with Win\Scratch at 60%
... in Corn the Win Percentage was 28% with Win\Scratch at 69% ... I think that
these results are strong considering this trading technique keeps draw down very
low.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>You can view the formula for the Traditional Pivot at: <A
href="http://news.bridge.com/NEWS/gfiv4_10.html";>http://news.bridge.com/NEWS/gfiv4_10.html</A></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The Pivot trade in the March Soybean was a no go this morning because the
Day Session Open was to firm. The March Corn was viable, but I stood aside
because of the strength in the beans.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Dennis</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Home Page <A
href="http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/home.htm";>http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/home.htm</A></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----
<DIV style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A
href="mailto:ist@xxxxxx"; title=ist@xxxxxx>Ira</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>RealTraders Discussion Group</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Friday, December 04, 1998 10:21 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: FUTR: Grains</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>I would like to know what your percentage of success is with
this type of trade. To me it seems flawed, but I am always willing to
learn something new. thank you. Ira.
<P>Dennis Peterson wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE = CITE>
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RealTraders,
<P><FONT size=-1>For 120498, Today is an example of how I like to trade the
PIVOT (average of the previous days High, Low, Close) ... the Project-A High
in the March Soybean was 5910 which is below Thursday's Pivot of 5916 ... if
SH9 opens on the Day Session below 5912 then <A
href="http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/113098/04osc-s.gif";>SH9 will be
presenting a selling opportunity</A>. Assume that the Project-A high will be
the high for the day and use a tight Buy Stop Loss.</FONT>
<P><FONT size=-1>This same trade also applies to March Corn. The Project-A
High was 2252 ... if CH9 opens on the Day Session below 2254 then <A
href="http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/113098/04osc-c.gif";>CH9 will be
presenting a selling opportunity</A>. Assume that the PA High will be the
high for the day, and use a tight stop loss.</FONT>
<P>DennisHome Page <A
href="http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/home.htm";>http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/home.htm</A></P></BLOCKQUOTE>
</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Fri Dec 04 10:34:10 1998
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Date: Fri, 4 Dec 1998 11:46:27 -0600
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From: "charles meyer" <chmeyer@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: s&p
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Harley and group:
. If you are wonder how the day will
> fair. Watch the A/D ratio and the Up / Down vol. ratio on the NYSE. If
breadth
> begins to deteriorate look for the indices to follow. Also this is Friday
many
> are not willing to hold over the weekend. So the chances of a down day
are very
> good today.
Based on my observations, I have concluded breadth is always a lagging
feature
in rallies. If you wait for breadth to confirm; you will be left behind in
the dust
and miss the upmove. I thought, perhaps incorrectly, that the leaders took
off
first to the upside; THEN BREADTH followed suit. Pehaps this lead/lag
observation will change in the future due to changing market conditions but
it
seems to hold true in recent years. Please, comments and would like
someone
to correct my thinking if it is incorrect.
Charles
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