|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
You are looking at the commodity sectors for signs of inflation which at this
time are not seen. Everyone is talking about deflation at this time. No one
seems to be paying attention to the split between the rapidly rising costs of
services and the decline in commodity costs. The is a botoom to commodity costs
and it isn't zero. If we have become a service economy, then rising costs in
that area would effect the economy greatly. Commodity prices are falling and
yet companies are having a hard time finding employees (I should state,
Qualified employees). The US is still a major debtor nation and we are printing
money like it is going out of style. If the ECU is successful, a big if, then
it will become the currency of choice and there will be a major dollar drop and
bond yields should skyrocket. There are two sides to every coin and sometimes
the bottom side is just as interesting as the face up side. Just something to
think about. Ira
Earl Adamy wrote:
> Sat down this morning with the bond charts to decide whether to scale back
> on bond holdings which have appreciated nicely over 18 months. A couple of
> years ago I had targets of 5.0% followed by eventual decline to 3.8-4.0% and
> began loading up on long maturities as we did not want to get caught having
> to replace short maturities at very low rates. The nasty reversal in early
> October has been giving me concern along with the failure to rally quickly
> off 5.3% area. On the fundamental side, I've been looking for a recession
> running well into 2000, however the fiscal stimulus of 3 Fed rate cuts may
> well counter any significant slowdown.
>
> After reviewing the monthly, weekly and daily charts, I think for now, bonds
> still look healthy but bear a close watch. The monthly and weekly bond
> charts seem to be pretty much intact in terms of both channels and fibs. The
> daily suggests that a rally through 130 would seem to negate much of the
> reversal unless/until a second failure occurs below the 11/6 lows. Looking
> elsewhere, I see nothing in utilities, copper or oil which suggests danger
> for bonds. The only major danger signal I see is coming from lumber and the
> housing sector.
>
> Earl
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: swp <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Sunday, November 22, 1998 11:13 AM
> Subject: Re: Fwd: GET: A useful tool
>
> >Actually, I had a downside target on bonds for 126-20 and had recs for
> >my clients to get long from 127-00 on down with targets for last week at
> >128-20. Pull back this week, then 130/131. For anybody working at firms
> >with reuters, I will be on Reuters TV at 2:00PM eastern on Monday.
|