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I will be exercising great caution in shorting this market on a day trading
basis and will not be shorting on a position trading basis. This rally has
roared on all cylinders except volume. Breadth, financials, broker/dealer,
small caps, and momentum have all been strong and the market has shown
strong preference to correcting sideways rather than downward. I'd be
surprised if we correct by more than 25% of the rally from the Oct 8 low.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: Steven C. Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, November 05, 1998 5:42 AM
Subject: Re: Gen: Stock Market
>RTs -
>
>Follow up.... Downside SPX cash target area is 1020-1050. SPX fututres
are off 6.00 as I write this. Will go short on the close if below 1105.
Stop at 1115. Acceptable risk/reward of approx 3:1.
>If downside move develops and performs as targeted, this will confirm a
change in trend from bear to bull.
>
>Steve
>
>>>> Steve Walker <Steve@xxxxxxxxxxxx> 11/04/98 04:15PM >>>
>RT's
>
>I have been looking for a top in the 1128 SPX area. I arrived at this by
>taking the July top of 1191 less the August low of 939 or 252 points * 75%
for
>189 points. Add this to the August low of 939 to get 1128 on the SPX.
>Today the cash SPX made a high of 1127.18 before closing lower on the
>day. Today is Nov 4, which is a full moon and much has been written in
this
>forum of the market declines which often accompany a full moon.
>Additionally, Gann wrote that there is often a CIT in early November during
>election years. I will be watching my short term indicators to initiate a
short
>position. I have not calculated my target low based on today's price
action
>however using yesterday's I get a downside target of 1015-1050 using Gann
>Angles and 1030-1055 using an Andrews calculation.
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