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<DIV><FONT color=#000000>OK, RT's, here's another chance to woo me with your
brilliance! Lots of talk about must read the market but must not form an
opinion, at least not an opinion you set in concrete and can't
change.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>I get a feel for the market, so, being human, that turns into an
opinion. Ten guys come on CNBC and confirm my opinion. This forum
confirms my opinion later that evening. Now I'm ready to trade.
</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Yet, so many say: listen to the market... or watch the price action... or
let the market tell you where it's going. How do I separate the two?
How do I read the market in an attempt to confirm my trading plan, yet not form
enough of an opinion to let it influence my trading? </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I realize if you are trading a mechanical system, this is a moot
point. But this seems to be a key to discretionary trading.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>All wisdom is appreciated!!!!!!</DIV>
<DIV>Dizzy from going in a circle...Linda</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>Linda Swope<BR>Swope's Mountain
Photography</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000>**Climb the mountains & get their good tidings;
Peace will flow into you as sunshine into flower; the winds will
blow their freshness into you & storms their energy, & cares will
drop off like autumn leaves. John Muir**</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Oct 31 21:20:29 1998
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Date: Sat, 31 Oct 1998 17:47:42 -0600
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From: "Bob Heisler" <bheisler@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: TO ALL THE IDIOTS THAT THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED, ETC
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Obviously one of the recent goals of the recent rate cuts, as well as their
timing, was to settle down the financial markets. Both the stock AND bond
markets. To believe that there could be other motivating factors, political
or financial in nature, hardly classifies anyone a conspiracy nut or idiot,
as you so eloquently stated.
Thank you for gracing us with your humble, open minded opinion, as well as
your precious time in your moment of weakness. I suspect these are frequent
in nature. Thank you also for your brilliant analysis of the markets. To
say after the DOW has rallied over 1,000 points in less than a month that we
are closer to a top than a bottom is pure genius.
My condolences to your paying clients for such enlightened commentary.
Those who can do, and those who can't try to convince others to pay them for
their supposed knowledge of the markets (which we all know are
unpredictable) since they cannot support themselves by their trading skills.
-----Original Message-----
From: steven poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Saturday, October 31, 1998 12:05 PM
Subject: Re: TO ALL THE IDIOTS THAT THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED, ETC
>Brent -
>
>I am not wearing rose colored glasses. I am amazed that somebody
>obviously as intelligent as you can believe that there is overt
>manipulation of the markets. Yes, the markets are manipulated via
>playing with our minds. Alan Greenspan plays the markets like Yitzhak
>Perlman plays a Stradivarius. As for Presidential cycles, the ground
>work is done without purchases of stocks. It is done by spending
>increases in your congressional district and by doing all the things
>that the electorate wants.
>
>Those involved with the street are very ego centric about the street.
>While the stock market is more important than it used to be because it
>is more widely held, a stock market drop really does not turn the
>economy. Look at 1987. True, the market rebounded, but it stayed below
>the 1987 highs for over a year. Everybody thought that the economy would
>sink, but sound monetary and fiscal policy saved the day (more monetary
>than fiscal since Reagan had the IQ of a retarded squirrel, and even if
>he was a genius the Congress had the summed IQ of a retarded squirrel).
>
>Yes, the markets are manipulated, but only through our minds via the
>policies of the Fed and the government. Not by the government purchasing
>stocks. They do it in Japan and Hong Kong, but this is neither.
>
>I AM NOT GOING TO RESPOND ANY MORE TO THESE POSTS. I DID THE ONE THIS
>MORNING DURING A MOMENT OF WEAKNESS. AS A BRILLIANT MEMBER OF THIS GROUP
>SENT TO ME, I WILL NEVER BE ABLE TO CONVINCE THOSE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO
>BELIEVE THIS CRAP, AND I WILL NOT LET MYSELF GET SUCKERED INTO REACTING
>TO THESE GENERAL POSTS AGAIN. (Brent - this is not aimed at you
>directly.) IF YOU WANT TO BELIEVE THIS STUFF, GREAT. HAVE FUN. IT IS A
>MATTER OF FAITH. Good luck and good trades to all.
>
>Steve
>
>
>BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>>
>> Ah come-on Steve take off your rose colored glasses. Can you honestly
tell
>> me that there has never been efforts to manipulate the markets? Although
I
>> don't expect that I will convince you of anything; as I have gotten older
I
>> have realized that Murphy's law applies to all sorts of manipulations. It
>> sometimes takes 40 years to find out but it happens all the same and
allthe
>> time.
>>
>> It would be naivete to not allow for the possibility of manipulation in
the
>> markets there certainly has been manipulation in the past. A strong rally
>> just before an election (in which a beleaguered President has much to
lose)
>> that began with a mighty shove from the fed would seem to be some
evidence
>> to me. Unless congress investigates we will likely never know. Since
history
>> is replete with plots, manipulation and conspiracies, I will not disallow
>> the possibility.
>>
>> Brent
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: steven poser <swp@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Saturday, October 31, 1998 8:48 AM
>> Subject: TO ALL THE IDIOTS THAT THINK THAT THE FED IS CONTROLLED, ETC
>>
>> >I am constantly amazed at what people will believe. What I love best
>> >about folks that believe in conspiracy theories, that the Fed buys
>> >futures (Earl, though I disagree with you on the futures purchase stuff,
>> >you are obviously not in the idiot category.)
>> >
>> >Alan Greenspan is the consummate market behaviorist and technical
>> >analyst. I am not suggesting that he sits there and draws lines, looks
>> >at OBV and RSI. But, he may be the only Central Banker in the world who
>> >understands how to mollify the markets. I wrote to my clients back
>> >before the first rate cut that the Fed would go again between meetings
>> >if they only went 25 bps on 29-Sep. I made this call based on how I
>> >thought the markets would react, and how I figured Greenspan would react
>> >to that. The day that the Fed cut again, was the first time I saw
>> >inklings of the market getting ready to turn lower. I think if the Fed
>> >had not cut then, we'd be at 6800 now and not 8600.
>> >
>> >Alan Greenspan almost certainly has no great love for Bill Clinton.
>> >Clinton is a Democrat and Greenspan is a Republican. So, Alan is not
>> >saving Bill. He is not saving a Republican Congress either that sits
>> >there and asks for rate cuts also when the economy is humming along. The
>> >FED is and must be fiercely independent.
>> >
>> >LOOK WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A CENTRAL BANK IS BELIEVED TO BE CONTROLLED BY
>> >THE GOVERNMENT (OR ACTUALLY IS CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT). LOOK HOW
>> >ENGLAND AND FRANCE HAVE IMPROVED THEIR ECONOMIES SINCE THEIR CENTRAL
>> >BANKS GAINED MORE INDEPENDENCE. LOOK AT THE FRIGGIN MESS JAPAN IS IN
>> >BECAUSE THE BOJ IS NOT INDEPENDENT.
>> >
>> >IF THERE WAS A TRUE BELIEF (AND FOR THAT MATTER REASON TO BELIEVE) THAT
>> >THE FED WAS CONTROLLED BY ANYBODY BUT THE CENTRAL BANKERS, THE DOW WOULD
>> >BE AT 5000 NO MATTER HOW LOW GREENSPAN PUT RATES. THAT IS HOW MUCH
>> >CONFIDENCE WOULD BE LOST.
>> >
>> >OH, AND THE FED IS ALSO NOT CONTROLLED BY WALL STREET. IF IT IS GOING IN
>> >TO SAVE STREET FIRMS, IT IS TO PREVENT A PANIC. I WAS NOT THERE IN 1929
>> >WHEN BANKS FAILED LEFT AND RIGHT. DO YOU WANT TO SEE THEM FALL LIKE
>> >DOMINOES?
>> >
>> >Remember, though how Wall Street goes, is not how the whole economy goes
>> >(did you see GDP yesterday? -- AND PLEASE DONT TELL ME THE FIGURES ARE
>> >RIGGED OR I'M GOING TO PUKE), failures are a different story. The
>> >markets are all about psychology, expectations and behavior. Nobody is
>> >better at managing that than Alan Greenspan. If it looks as if the Fed
>> >is controlled, it is only because knows how to pull the strings.
>> >
>> >Steve
>> >
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