|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Steve,
I agree 100%, especially about the feds timing, i went short that
morning and ended up reversing later in the day, i really think we
wouldve tanked good from there had he not eased. I have a question
since i'm on the lookout to get short again; Do you think Greenspan will
jump to the rescue again the next time we look as vulnerable to a drop?
This whole scenario is making playing the short side a risky venture.
TIA,
jerry
steven poser wrote:
>
> I am constantly amazed at what people will believe. What I love best
> about folks that believe in conspiracy theories, that the Fed buys
> futures (Earl, though I disagree with you on the futures purchase stuff,
> you are obviously not in the idiot category.)
>
> Alan Greenspan is the consummate market behaviorist and technical
> analyst. I am not suggesting that he sits there and draws lines, looks
> at OBV and RSI. But, he may be the only Central Banker in the world who
> understands how to mollify the markets. I wrote to my clients back
> before the first rate cut that the Fed would go again between meetings
> if they only went 25 bps on 29-Sep. I made this call based on how I
> thought the markets would react, and how I figured Greenspan would react
> to that. The day that the Fed cut again, was the first time I saw
> inklings of the market getting ready to turn lower. I think if the Fed
> had not cut then, we'd be at 6800 now and not 8600.
>
> Alan Greenspan almost certainly has no great love for Bill Clinton.
> Clinton is a Democrat and Greenspan is a Republican. So, Alan is not
> saving Bill. He is not saving a Republican Congress either that sits
> there and asks for rate cuts also when the economy is humming along. The
> FED is and must be fiercely independent.
>
> LOOK WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A CENTRAL BANK IS BELIEVED TO BE CONTROLLED BY
> THE GOVERNMENT (OR ACTUALLY IS CONTROLLED BY THE GOVERNMENT). LOOK HOW
> ENGLAND AND FRANCE HAVE IMPROVED THEIR ECONOMIES SINCE THEIR CENTRAL
> BANKS GAINED MORE INDEPENDENCE. LOOK AT THE FRIGGIN MESS JAPAN IS IN
> BECAUSE THE BOJ IS NOT INDEPENDENT.
>
> IF THERE WAS A TRUE BELIEF (AND FOR THAT MATTER REASON TO BELIEVE) THAT
> THE FED WAS CONTROLLED BY ANYBODY BUT THE CENTRAL BANKERS, THE DOW WOULD
> BE AT 5000 NO MATTER HOW LOW GREENSPAN PUT RATES. THAT IS HOW MUCH
> CONFIDENCE WOULD BE LOST.
>
> OH, AND THE FED IS ALSO NOT CONTROLLED BY WALL STREET. IF IT IS GOING IN
> TO SAVE STREET FIRMS, IT IS TO PREVENT A PANIC. I WAS NOT THERE IN 1929
> WHEN BANKS FAILED LEFT AND RIGHT. DO YOU WANT TO SEE THEM FALL LIKE
> DOMINOES?
>
> Remember, though how Wall Street goes, is not how the whole economy goes
> (did you see GDP yesterday? -- AND PLEASE DONT TELL ME THE FIGURES ARE
> RIGGED OR I'M GOING TO PUKE), failures are a different story. The
> markets are all about psychology, expectations and behavior. Nobody is
> better at managing that than Alan Greenspan. If it looks as if the Fed
> is controlled, it is only because knows how to pull the strings.
>
> Steve
|