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Y2K impact?



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What effect will Y2K have on the markets?

Here's a collection of report summaries posted elsewhere.....

- Mark Jurik
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The Social Security Administration has 30,000,000 lines of code to fix. 
Four hundred programmers have been working on the problem since 1991, and 
had only fixed six million lines after five years of effort. The Washington 
Post

The total cost of fixing the Y2K problem will be between $300 billion and 
$600 billion worldwide. The Gartner Group

The total cost of Y2K repairs for the U.S. government is estimated to be 
$3.9 billion. Office of Management and Budget (OMB), who also warned the 
estimate might be 90% too low

Worldwide economic damage of Y2K will reach $119 billion. When adding the 
cost of lawsuits, the total cost could be well over $1 trillion. Business 
Week

The FAA has forty vintage IBM model 3083 mainframes. None are compliant and 
they cannot be made compliant because the people who designed them are 
either dead or retired. Announcement by IBM, the maker of the computers 
(the FAA says they can still make it? bizarre?)

Up to 70% of businesses in Asia will fail outright or experience severe 
hardship. Phillip Dodd, a Unisys Y2K expert, as quoted in the Bangkok Post

The potential for a deep global recession in 2000 is 70%. Dr. Edward 
Yardini, the chief economist of Deutsche Morgan Grenfell

General Motors has over 100,000 suppliers worldwide, any one of which can 
bring their assembly line to a halt.

70% of Chief Information Officers of corporations in America believe their 
companies will not be compliant in time.

The IRS has over 80,000,000 lines of computer code, running in 88,000 
programs on 80 mainframe computers. By the end of 1997, they had fixed 
2,000 programs, leaving 86,000 to go. The Washington Post

The United States, with over half of all computer capacity and 60% of 
Internet assets, is the world's most technology-dependent country. -- GAO 
report, Sep 3, 1998

Finding and fixing all the Y2K-affected software will require over 700,000 
person-years. Capers Jones, head of Software Productivity Research, a firm 
that tracks programmer productivity

Over a billion embedded chips exist worldwide. An estimated 1% are 
susceptible to the Y2K bug. Unfortunately, many critical chips are in 
deep-sea drilling rigs, satellites, or other impossible-to-reach platforms. 

Most cars built since 1990 contain over 20 microprocessors.

With just over 500 days left before the new millennium, only 15% of 
companies and government agencies expect to have their critical systems 
more than three-quarters tested and compliant for year 2000 by Jan. 1, 
1999, according to a study released today by IT services firm Cap Gemini 
America. Information Week, August 1998

Only 11% of companies in the United States have begun looking at 
noncompliant chips (embedded systems). Gartner Group research report

Eastern Europe, Russia, India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, Japan, most of 
South America, most of the Middle East and central Africa all lag the 
United States by more than 12 months in their Y2K repairs Gartner Group 
analyst Lou Marcoccio in his Y2K status report

47% of U.S. companies have no answer to the question, 'What will happen 
when your embedded systems fail?' Gartner Group research report

As of September 1998, only 23% of U.S. companies had evaluated the effect 
of Y2K on their supply chain (the interdependency factor?) Gartner Group 
research report

180 billion lines of software code will have to be screened worldwide. The 
Gartner Group

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Projected Y2K Costs: Companies Company Projected Future Costs Source

TOTAL PROJECTED COSTS for the listed companies: $5,065,508,000

British Telecommunications Plc $200,000,000  Computergram International 
1/22/97
American Airlines $100,000,000  Congressional Press Release 11/10/97
Depository Trust Co. $25,000,000  Operations Management 1/20/97
Madison Gas & Electric Co. $1,000,000  Capital Times 1/1/97
U. S. West $40,000,000  The Denver Post 2/7/97
USSA $75,000,000  Congressional Press Release 11/10/97
Disk/Trend $8,000  Business Journal - Portland 1/31/97
Federal Express $500,000,000  Broward Daily Business Review 3/21/97
ANZ Company $40,000,000  Deutsche Presse-Agentur 4/14/97
Bezeq $13,000,000  U.P.I 4/14/97
Hertz Corp. $15,000,000  10K 3/25/97
Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. $10,000,000  10K 12/18/96
Cinergy Corp. $12,000,000  10K 3/27/96
LG&E Energy Corp. $12,000,000  10K 3/28/97
Marshall & Ilsley Corp. $25,000,000  10K 3/7/97
Progressive Corp. $4,300,000  10K 3/31/97
Southern National Corp., North Carolina $7,000,000  10K 3/17/97
Southern New England Telephone Co. $15,000,000  10K 3/20/97
Crestar $5,000,000  Roanoke Times and World News 5/11/97
Electronic Data Systems Corp. $144,000,000  The Reuter Business Report 
5/28/97
Norfolk Southern Corp. $10,000,000  Roanoke Times & World News 5/11/97
Singapore Telecom $21,000,000  The Straits Times 7/31/97
Tribune Co. $7,000,000  Editor & Publisher Magazine 8/23/97
Telecom $87,000,000  The Press 9/16/97
Picker International Inc. $31,000,000  Crain's Cleveland Business 10/6/97
Experian $25,000,000  Newsbytes 9/24/97
AT&T $500,000,000  Texas Lawyer 11/10/97
Dayton Hudson $14,000,000  Supermarket News 10/27/97
GTE $150,000,000  Congressional Press Release 11/10/97
MCI $150,000,000  Texas Lawyer 11/10/97
Sabre $40,000,000  The Dallas Morning News 10/16/97
Telstra Corp. $500,000,000  AAP Newsfeed 11/6/97
DHL Worldwide Express $25,000,000  Computergram International 12/1/97
Advanced Marketing Services, San Diego $500,000  BP Report 12/8/97
CSX Corp. $40,000,000  The Tennessean 1/4/98
Ames Department Stores Inc. $2,000,000  Reuters
FirstEnergy Corp. $72,000,000  Crain's Cleveland Business
Domtar $5,000,000  The Ottawa Citizen
Amoco Corp. $100,000,000  Atlanta Business Chronicle
KeyCorp $40,000,000  Crain's Cleveland Business
American Greetings Corp. $35,000,000  Crain's Cleveland Business
First Commercial Corp. of Little Rock $10,000,000  Business Dateline; 
Arkansas Business
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. $22,000,000  Business Dateline; Arkansas Business
Unilever $500,000,000  Journal of Commerce
Ottawa-Carleton Regional Transit Commission $4,600,000  The Ottawa Citizen
BCE Inc. $450,000,000  The Gazette
Hydro-Quebec $60,000,000  The Gazette
Bell Helicopter Textron Canada $1,100,000  The Gazette
Raymond James & Associates $5,000,000  St. Petersburg Times
Florida Power $10,000,000  St. Petersburg Times
Reuters $200,000,000  Daily Mail
Georgia-Pacific $55,000,000  Atlanta Journal Constitution
Ameritech Corp. $200,000,000  Reuters
Bell Atlantic Corporation $300,000,000  Richmond Times Dispatch
Dominion Resources $150,000,000  Richmond Times Dispatch