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>From Businessweek. Uh oh <g>....
JW
abprosys@xxxxxxx <mailto:abprosys@xxxxxxx>
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A FAMOUS BEAR SEES HONEY AHEAD
REMEMBER ELAINE GARZARELLI? Two years ago, the investment strategist--who
made her name by turning bearish a month before the 1987 crash--yelled
''sell!'' at Dow 5400. Six months later and 1200 points higher, she turned
bullish. But too late: Her bad call took Garzarelli out of the guru game.
Market mavens and the media chose Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs and
Ralph Acampora of Prudential Securities as their favored seers.
Now, the onetime Lehman Brothers superstar is telling clients to load up.
The indicators she watches are 75% positive: ''That's what you see at market
bottoms,'' Garzarelli says. In fact, those indicators are at their most
bullish since 1994, when the Dow was below 4000.
Garzarelli predicts deflationary forces will push interest rates lower and
continue to depress corporate earnings. Still, she says, pressure on profits
will lift during 1999's third quarter. Anticipating that, the market will
rally. Garzarelli's goal: 1400 on the S&P 500, or 11,300 on the Dow Jones,
within 12 to 18 months. Cohen, meanwhile, has forecast 1200 to 1250 for the
S&P in 1999; the bearish Acampora points to Dow 6700. If Garzarelli proves
more on target, her word may once again move markets.
By Jeffrey Laderman
EDITED BY JOAN OLECK
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