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This just in from the Princeton Economics people:
Thank you for registering to our web site. No doubt many of you were
encouraged when the FED unexpectedly lowered rates. The talking heads
on CNBC and CNN have soothed many nerves, but because you took the time
to register, we'd like to warn you that the worst may not yet be in.
The stock market is still vulnerable to a move to 6500 on the DOW or
844-757 on S&P Dec contract. Incidentally our Timing Models indicate
Weekly Panic Cycles for most major currencies. This will likely impact
the stock market.. In case you're wondering, a Panic Cycle is a model
that tries to predict in advance the probability of an Outside Day (or a
day when the range is greater than that of the previous day). We see
Tuesday 10/20 and Friday 10/23 as the key days to watch next week.
Panic Cycles do not indicate direction, but given that the market is
rallying into this timeframe and given that we have a brick wall of 3
weekly bullish reversals at 1125.20 1127.90 1129.40 basis December
contract, we believe the upside is limited. Do you really want to
risk a potential over 250 points down for a potential 50 points up???
Maybe you will want to hold off establishing a Short Position until you
see more evidence of weakness, but you sure as heck don't want to be
long going into next week.
One broker told us that out of 350 clients he serves, not one person
wished to move money from the stock market into the safety of a money
market fund. NOT ONE! If you consider yourself contrarian (which of
course everyone does), what does that tell you???
It tells me that the proverbial frog is happy in his jacuzzi even though
the temperature has been rising since July 20th, 1998. It will take a
lot of pain to cause the average investor to panic. The average
investor, having been long the market for over 3 years, is nowhere near
his pain threshold. Perhaps this will not be true for much longer.
For a more detailed discussion on the vulnerabilities of the stock
market see the new article on the web by our chairman, Martin Armstrong.
Go to our web site:
http://www.pei-intl.com
Click on MAIN
On the White Page click on the article title: "Lower Rates--Bullish or a
Bearish Omen"
For a discussion on the Reversal System, click here:
http://www.pei-intl.com/Publications/Y1991/M0891/REVERSAL.HTM
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