|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
I just wanted to share some recent analysis with my fellow RT'ers.
Using a combination of tools including fractal and pattern analysis,
trend lines, cycles, and Nature's Pulse, I've concluded that the DJIA
should go below 7000 by October 16th or 19th (intra-day basis). An
expanding downward sloping wedge could make downward moves extremely
violent in the coming days and weeks. Kindly refer to the attached
chart.
Fractal #3 is twice the size of #2...which is twice the size of #1.
Expect fractal #3 to repeat the shape of #2 and #1...at least until it
hits resistance below 7000. It is possible for the final leg of fractal
#3 to extend down to 5900 around 10/25, but unlikely. I expect that the
multiplicity of support lines in the 6650 to 7000 region will "break"
the last leg of the fractal preventing it from finding the level it
would naturally seek. I also expect the 10/16 Nature's Pulse energy
point will be a bottom. The 10/16-19 date intersects the final fractal
leg at 6769 where it finds support on a downward sloping trend line. I
do not expect this line will be significantly violated until possible
late in October or mid November.
Note that fractal #1 is 12 days (almost 13 days), #2 is 27 days (double
of #1). #3 is expected to be 54 (double of #2) which terminates on
October 25th. Also note that a 76 day cycle that has been prominent in
the Dow for years bottomed on September 1st. This was also the bottom of
a 38 day cycle. That 38 day cycle bottomed on October 8th...almost the
same time that the 76 day cycle was about to peak!!!! No wonder we saw
such a tremendous run-up from the 8th to the 12th of October. Price
action on October 13th confirmed the 76 day cycle peak of the previous
day.
A strong upswing above 8084 is highly unlikely as the 8100 to 8200 level
has been tested three times in the last month. This level represents a
38% retracement from the July peak to the September 1st bottom. Such
retracements often launch extremely powerful moves...and I full expect
to see this by the end of the week and/or October 19th.
Finally....if there is any doubt as to which way prices will ultimately
turn, the break of the long-term support line on August 27th should
resolve any doubt.
Any comments on this analysis? I realize that this or any other analysis
can be wrong...and only the market itself is always "right".
Andre
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//IETF//DTD HTML//EN">
<html>
<head>
<title>HTML document for the World Wide Web</title>
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="MetaStock 6.0">
</head>
<body>
<h2 align=center>Dow Jones Industrials 1900-97<br>
(INDU) </h2>
<p align=center><img src="dowfcst.jpg" align=bottom> </p>
<h3 align=center>Data for 10/13/98 </h3>
<div align=center><center>
<table border=1 ALIGN="CENTER">
<tr><td><table ALIGN="CENTER">
<tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Exp Trend</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">N/A</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">INDU</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000"></font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Open</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">8,002.50</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">High</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">8,009.97</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Low</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">7,884.59</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Close</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">7,938.14</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Volume</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">0</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Open Int.</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">0</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Price Chg.</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">-63.3</font></font> </td></tr><tr><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">Vol</font></font></td><td><font FACE="Arial"><font color="#000000">0.00000</font></font> </td></tr>
</table>
</td></tr>
</table>
</center></div>
</body>
</html>
</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 15 07:11:11 1998
Received: from list.listserver.com (198.68.191.15)
by mail05.rapidsite.net (RS ver 0.3) with SMTP id 23459
for <neal@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Thu, 15 Oct 1998 01:27:59 -0400 (EDT)
Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by accessone.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/PIH) with SMTP id WAA25605;
Wed, 14 Oct 1998 22:27:37 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from mail.eaze.net (qmailr@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [209.160.106.3])
by accessone.com (8.8.5/8.8.5/PIH) with SMTP id WAA25401
for <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; Wed, 14 Oct 1998 22:24:50 -0700 (PDT)
Received: (qmail 21551 invoked from network); 15 Oct 1998 04:16:05 -0000
Received: from lras-2-18.eaze.net (HELO eaze.net) (209.160.126.85)
by mail.eaze.net with SMTP; 15 Oct 1998 04:16:05 -0000
Message-Id: <3625874E.9CAE60B7@xxxxxxxx>
Date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 00:25:34 -0500
Reply-To: joe6964@xxxxxxxx
Sender: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: Joe Frabosilio <joe6964@xxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: GEN:DOW
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Listprocessor-Version: 8.1 -- ListProcessor(tm) by CREN
X-Loop-Detect: 1
Hello everyone,
Here is something that might be of interest, its a comparison of the
percentage loss of the DOW in 1987 and now. On 8/25/87 the dow made a
high of 2742.03 the bottom was on 10/20/87 1616.21, this comes to a 41%
drop/loss. Currently the Dow is down 21.59% from its peak on 7/17/98 of
9412.64 and using a low of 7379.7 on 9/1/98.
If history repeats itself, the dow should fall to the 5600 level, to
come up with a 40.5% loss. The one way that I see the Dow comeing to
this level, if Brazil cannot get its economy in order. Coffee and Soy
beans ( I believe) are the two cash crops of that country. If prices
fall futher on Coffee and Soy Beans, Brazil could be in finanical
trouble starting a domino effect spreading threw out South America and
Central America. Which in turn would drop the Dow down to the 5600 level
without blinking an eye.
I think a good time frame of when this might happen would be sometime in
Dec,Jan. This is a gut feeling no facts.
Trade Well,
Joe Frabosilio
|