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<DIV><FONT size=2>Traders,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>The long WZ, short CZ Spread is starting to get over
bought. I think it might be best to wait to reenter after a strong pull
back of the December Wheat ... see chart <A
href="http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/98/analysis/101998/1008_WZ-CZ_spread.gif";>http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/98/analysis/101998/1008_WZ-CZ_spread.gif</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Dennis</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=1>Home Page <A
href="http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/home.htm";>http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/home.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Thu Oct 08 07:44:18 1998
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Date: Thu, 8 Oct 1998 08:23:26 -0500
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From: "Dennis Peterson" <mig@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: MKT - INDU
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>Let's do a pivot and fibonacci "what if" scenario on the Dow Jones
>Industrials. The question is just how close is 7400? Since chart
aficionados
>have perspective on historical prices and can see a 9300+ high, 7400 is
almost
>2,000 points lower, and in time it has happened rather fast. Now then
looking
>at the INDU on daily pivots and weekly and monthly fibonacci zones just how
>plausible is 7400 or lower in the month of October? Looking at the daily
>pivots(chart on next email) we see that 7400 is at S3 tomorrow, 10/8/98.
>Looking at the weekly fibos 7400 is at the lower edge of this week's fibo
>zone. Looking at the monthly fibos, 7400 is at first fibo support zone.
>Given the volatility we have seen in the INDU we could see 7400 to 7200 on
the
>weekly fibos in the next two days and 7400 to 7000 on the monthly fibos in
the
>next three weeks. Psychologically, those in denial see 7400 far away, but
for
>mechanical traders it is rather close.
>
>BobR
>http://www.oextrader.com
>
Bob,
My Elliott Wave Analysis indicates that taking out 7400 would confirm the
acceleration phase of a Wave 3 which is very bearish (see attached chart).
Using 9300 as the high, a 50 percent retracement would be the 4650 level.
Taking out 7400 would also confirm a Bearish Head and Shoulders Top ... see
chart
http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/98/analysis/101998/1006_h&s_dji_dly.gif
Dennis
http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/home.htm
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\100898_dji.gif"
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![http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/98/analysis/101998/1008_WZ-CZ_spread.gif"](http://homepage.macomb.com/~mig/98/analysis/101998/1008_WZ-CZ_spread.gif"){kind=link}
