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The most important thing for anybody when they are trading, or doing
analysis, is to find a way that makes them comfortable and that helps
them profit. I do not think that there is anybody on this list that has
a great desire to convert people to their way of thinking, but each of
us has a way of looking at the markets that works well for us.
I am a market strategist that uses a combination of Elliott Wave,
classical technical analysis,sentiment, and even fundamentals. The
bottom line is that the markets act according to human nature, and
whatever human nature (as depicted by crowds) would do, is what the
markets do. So, if they perceive inflation, interest rates go up. If
they perceive lower earnings, stock market prices go down.
Somebody posted that they would get a lot of nasty responses if they
said what they really though about Elliott. I use EWave because it fits
well with the way I look at the markets and the world. I get my counts
AFTER considering market psychology, fundamentals, other markets, supply
and demand, etc. Then, Elliott gives me a road map as to how the market
ought to develop. If it does not develop that way, then I know I am
wrong and I look for another possible patternt that adds up, by going to
the drawing board and starting my analysis over.
If a person thinks that is EWave is malarky, then, in my opinion, they
are ignoring something that could potentially help them trade. But, I
would not want to change their opinion unless they wanted to. If I hear
of anything that the market looks at, I want to know about it, because
there might be stops or other orders placed in certain spots based on
that kind of thinking. Even if you think EWave, astrology, stochastics,
or anything else is hog wash, to ignore it is just eliminating an
advantage you could have on these people.
For example, I have a current view of the wave counts off the highs in
stocks that many EWavers would disagree with. If the S&P 500 cash index
gets above their line in the sand, which is at 1054 or 1057, they are
going to get long term bullish, but I will not. I know that there are
likely buy orders above this area, so I would be long on the idea that
folks will take out the stops, but it would be for a s-t trade, because
I think we have a hard time getting significantly past 1065 and I am
bearish longer term. So, I will be fading people with that analysis. I
might be wrong, but I will make money either way if we get up there.
Every person is entitled to an opinion. But to bash a type of analysis
is just plain silly. I do not know enuf about astro-finance to bash it.
I use it to the degree that I know people are looking at it. If a
pattern does not work out, I want to know why. As an EWaver, the
astrofinance info should be embedded in the chart patterns, but it helps
to know anyway.
So, if somebody bashes EWave, my only response will be: If that person
took the time to understand it, and listened to people that knew what
they were talking about, rather than all the people out there that read
one Prechter book and think they know what they are talking about, then
that is their opinion. If it is based on a very incomplete knowledge of
the art, then they are fooling themselves and being very short sighted.
I have placed my opinion here before and it is heavily based on Elliott.
I wrote that the market was going to 1043 and there was risk to 1065. We
are above 1043 now. I wrote that bonds were going to rally to 130 and we
missed by 3/32nds and are not done. I was bearish the dollar at 1.81 and
145 and had initial targets at 138 and 1.78/76 and then revised them
lower. I haven't posted (bonds and stocks were) because that is what I
am paid to do. I will be happy to periodically put posts up.
Here is one:
Bullish bonds to 128-20 (fifth wave of wave-c of wave-B of wave-4).
Stops at 127-29.
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