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I agree with the idea that we need to make another new low. I do not
think it will be this week though. Puts will have a deliterious effect
on prices this week, making huge further gains possible, but the five
wave nature of what alot of folks have labeled as wave-d (and which is
possible) is what I have labeled as "a of d". That means that we rallied
to 1040 in "b of d" and are completing wave-c of wave-d now. Targets
will be near 990-1000 cash s&P. Note that though the triangle
possibility looks good on the s&p cash chart, it does not on the dow
chart.
As for up side potential, the triangle line is rising around 5 points
per day and the s&p, so if we assume this move bottoms on Thursday or
Friday, we can look for a move past major resistance near 1043 and on
toward the upper-1050s and even into the lower-1060s, as Ben has
suggested.
This will also destroy most folks 1-2-3-4 and still to come wave-5
counts. But, since I believe that the market has done a pair of a-b-c's
with an x-wave in between, and since I see this also as an x-wave, such
a move is not a problem. Once this wave completes, I expect we will get
the final drop lower into the 7000/6500 range.
Note that the extension of this rally for another week will take us into
Rosh Hashana on Monday and Tuesday, which is in line with some of Chris
Carolan's thinking as to when risk starts growing for another leg lower
(though I still disagree with his and PEI's contention that this is a
major bear market).
Earl Adamy wrote:
>
> I have 1068.70 as the pivot low of the first wave decline. I don't expect it
> to be violated, however a significant violation would suggest that the
> decline is over. I'm showing a strong cluster of resistance points in range
> 1047-1053. Weekly work suggests that we need to put in a new low before the
> correction will be completed.
>
> Earl
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Proffittak@xxxxxxx <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, September 15, 1998 5:17 AM
> Subject: sp500
>
> >good morning
> >
> >short term overbought
> >mkt will visit today or tomorow 1035 and maybe intra day even fill gap
> >
> >but by fri will visit (at least intra day) 1062-1065 sp dec
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