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Kevin, I agree with the first part. I have a comment about your trade. It
has been my experience that when extreme volatility happens, many of the
probabilities go out the window. I usually decline to trade in these
conditions now. Some of the guys like Ben seem to have a handle on trading
in these conditions. I like markets that make sense.
Brent
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> From: Kevin Morgan <kmorgan@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: GEN: trades anyone?
> Date: Wednesday, September 09, 1998 7:58 PM
>
> Hey RT'rs:
>
> To quote John Lennon:
>
> "I don't believe in <put your favorite trading belief here>,
> I just believe in me."
>
> I'm not interested in anything related to trading "just because", and
> that includes astrology and that includes MA's and stochs and that
> includes freezes in Florida.
>
> All I'm interested in related to trading is trading. So where are
> your trades? Trades are the be all and the end all. Behind a trade is
the
> why and wherefor. The why and wherefor are only interesting and of
value
> in the context of specific trades!! Then they show their value, and
> their risks. And the value is the real time assessment, uncertainty,
> decision making, and final execution based on your beliefs...not
> after the fact analysis. (i.e., historical trades are of far less
> learning value, imo)
>
> So, I am much more interested in hearing what you are
> buying or selling, and how, and THEN why, and how you are managing your
> trade over time...than I am in abstract assessments of why you do,
don't,
> may or may not believe in astrological influences, or TA, or Super Bowl
> theories, or whatever your trading system is.
>
> I'm interested in your trades and your logic and what happens because
> from that, I can learn. Maybe I even learn astrology, who knows.
>
> (Note: nothing really wrong with abstract stuff, I can skip over it
> quick enough; I'm not suggesting not having those discussions; who am
> I to suggest that. I'm just interested in getting something from
this
> forum, and tying the abstract stuff to the real thing makes
it...real.)
>
>
> To whit:
>
> A HORRIBLE TRADE:
>
> Sold short one JY8Z at market, order placed Tues. night. Good idea!
> Horrible timing. The Tuesday action that screamed "sell" had
> already had its effect, and Wed. opened far, far lower. (Globex
> when I checked it last night was a little lower, but not much.)
> And then JY bounced and rose. After what looked like a possible high
> had been established, I placed a tight stop, but another bounce took
> me out for a quick $500 loss. Ouch! I am, yours truly, a fool. I
> swear it: I will NEVER NEVER NEVER again use a market order to enter
> into a currencies position. NEVER!!!!! (and I think I told myself
> that only last week too, which goes to prove that learning requires
> repetition!)
>
> Oh yes, what screamed "sell"? A "star" pattern from Japanese
> candlesticks, where a significant upmove is topped by a gap open
> with a down close, and the low is above the previous day's high.
> A "dark star" above the previous action. It commonly signals a
> significant turn. I needed to see it in real-time though, and
> get in on Tuesday's close..."I'd be rich now". Well, I'd certainly
> have alot more $'s in my account equity, anyway.
>
>
> -k
>
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