|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Now to beat the horse again. All this stuff is only interesting in the
context of ALL predictions made using such techniques. What is their
statistical accuracy? Not just for a chosen few. If you predict a crash
everyday, you'll be right sooner or later. If I predict a crash every
other day, the odds are 100% I'll be within 1 day, eventually...
Larry Lewis
-----Original Message-----
From: "Stig Olausson" (reply to: olausson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx)
[SMTP:olausson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx (MIME) (actually from:
owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx)]
Sent: Thursday, September 03, 1998 1:36 AM
To: realtraders
Subject: SEP 11
This is a long post.
Ned Markson mentions 9/11 and 9/30 as energypoints.
There are some very interesting information to be found with regard to
that
date on the internet and some of the addresses have been mentioned on
this
list.
Peter Eliades http//:stockmarketcycles.com/ in his "Current
Observations",
written in June 98, after discussing the top around July 20, refers to
Steve Puetz who has found that market crashes tend to occur (if they do
occur!) close to full moons that are also Lunar Eclipses "the greatest
number of crashes start after the full moon after a solar eclipse - when
that full moon is also a lunar eclipse... on the day of the full moon or
slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the market place"
For those of you who do not consult the almanac, we had a solar eclipse
on
Aug 21 and a full moon with lunar eclipse on Sunday the Sep 6.
Thus we should perhaps be somewhat careful (or aggressive?) on Sep 7-11?
He also states that secondary tops tend to occur 38 calendar days after
the top.
The 2nd Top in S&P (Cash) was on Aug 20 = 36 days after THE top, so it
might be that we are on track.
He also refers to Chris Carolan author of Spiral Calendar who has found
that panics tend to occur on the 27th or 28th day of the sixth or seventh
"lunar month" (This year 17/18 Sep or 16/17 Oct)
He also concludes that crashes have had a tendency to occur 55 (Fib)
calendardays after final tops have been registered.
55 calendardays after July 20th=Sep 13 which is Sunday, so what will
happen
on Sep 11-14?
Martin Armstrong Princeton Economic Institute (PEI)
http//:www.pei-intl.com
has presented extensive (free) information on his website. He finds it
interesting (and so do I) that meltdown 1929 and 1987 began om the 36th
trading day after the top.=Sep 9 with the final low on day 40 = Sep 13
(Sunday) They also seem too track a "Panic Cycle", which is due the week
after Labor Day going into the week of Sep 14th!
Ross Clark has also shown similar coincidences.
Arch Crawford shows in Jeanne Longs "Traders Astrological Almanac" in an
article how the stockmarket since 1915 has started a decline after Mars
is
opposite (180 degrees) Uranus. This decline is then in effect until the
planets are 36 degrees apart going into conjunction. He studied 42 of
these
cycles and he concludes: ...every high volatility smash since world war 1
has occurred within the same 40% of the Mars/Uranus synodic longitudinal
cycle... from a separation of 180 degrees to a separation of 36 degrees
prior to next conjunction"
On Sep 4, Mars is Opposite Uranus and the Cycle starts....
Hannes Hannula (Alan Larson) concludes with the help HIS cycles that if
you
expect a crash in October you are too late. Read his article "The Moon in
action http//:www.sni.net/hans/damoon27.html
So using Raymond Merrimans software FAR I checked the aspects occurring
on
Sep 11 since that date has a cluster of interesting aspects:
Mercury Con Venus
Mercury square Pluto
Venus square Pluto
+ Heliocentric Mercury trine Jupiter and Hel. Mercury Conj. Mars
With his software you check if an aspect is connected to for instance
great
volatility.
I choose a 3% orb for the aspects and 4 % volatility (=40 point drop with
SPX at 1000)
Since 1
959 we have had a 4% drop or more on 7 occasions when Mercury has
been Conjunct Venus and on 2 instances before when Mercury has been
square
Pluto
In Norbert Haley' s Astrological Almanac which is a bargain for $10.00
(where you find ALL the aspects of the year+other interesting facts). And
he has absolutely nothing to do with Financial Astrology, I found a
remark:"On Oct 18 1987 the stockmarket crash occurred on the day of
Jupiter
-Sun opposition... this event is the strongest gravitational influence on
Earth from another planet" !!
So I checked that one too: In the last 39 years we have had a 4% or
greater
correction 6 (!) times when Jupiter has opposed the Sun!
16.7% of all oppositions has created a 4% or greater correction
A 10% correction has occurred twice.
The next one is on September 15, 1998!!
Mars Uranus opposition has been involved in one 10% correction before
(Sep
4, remember?)
MercuryConjunct Venus has been involved in a 10% correction 3 times
before
since 1959
I find it extremely fascinating to notice these coincidences when:
The financial world is in turmoil
We seem to be in a wave 3 decline
We have convincingly broken the neckline of a large Head and Shoulder
Pattern and are presently testing the neckline from below.
I presented all these facts for a friend of mine who has ALL his pension
savings invested in stocks, but since the stocks have already fallen by
20%
(after a 100% gain?`) he will not sell. IF market should fall, it will
probably rise again... he says. Besides I am in it for he long term.
What can you do?
And what will happen on the 11th - if anything?
And by the way don't forget Clement Schong's post from August 19, on
RealTraders, where he shows the Zain-Bradly Indicator with a top on Sep 7
and a bottom an the 17th - very interesting! I wonder what will happen in
between those dates?
regards
Stig
|