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I assume you are referring to the 5 dma - is intended to gently smooth the
McOsc.
Earl
-----Original Message-----
From: David Morse <DMorse@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 10:37 AM
Subject: Re: mkt outlook
>Why did you choose the 19dma and not another period?
>
>Earl Adamy wrote:
>
>> Sentiment readings which work in a bull market are frequently not reliable in
a
>> bear market so I would be cautious about using them. The H&S bottom in the
McOsc
>> completed on 8/12, failed on 8/26, the oscillator has not turned up, and at
such
>> deeply negative levels the McOsc is unreliable without smoothing using a
short
>> term average - the 5ma of the McOsc is still headed down but a bottom here
would
>> confirm a rally. The McOsc based on weekly a/d remains headed straight south
to
>> bear market levels.
>>
>> I do generally agree with your conclusions. Am looking for a drop to the
(NYSE)
>> 485 area followed by a sharp rally in both big caps and interest rates,
followed
>> by another decline to the 480-485 area which may hold.
>>
>> On the longer term I suspect we may well see a trading range market not much
>> above DJIA 7000 for the
>> next couple of years (through the millennium) accompanied by long yields in
the
>> 4% area followed by a resumption of the bull market. The yield curve has been
>> saying recession ahead for many months and the earnings yield/tbill model has
>> turned down indicating a probable return to historical norms: about half of
>> current levels in some combination of reduced rates and reduced stock prices.
>> The rapidly increasing downside risk here is that if the global
>> financial/political problems are not contained, we could see a horrific bear
>> market decline. In any event, if we get a decent rally here, will be looking
to
>> load in more zeros.
>>
>> Earl
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Proffittak@xxxxxxx <Proffittak@xxxxxxx>
>> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Date: Monday, August 31, 1998 5:10 AM
>> Subject: mkt outlook
>>
>> >good morning
>> >
>> >with only 19% of all stocks on big board above their 200 day m/a
>> >we are exterimely oversold
>> >
>> >mkt sentiment has not turned up
>> >McClullen osc at -216 is definetely at much HIGHER reading then last
sell
>> >off
>> >with MUCH lower prices(bullish divergence)
>> >i suspect intra day low of 490 on nya and then a dead cat bounce to
>> >555-560nya intra day hi
>> >unless new hi-new low/total issues*100 goes above its 19 day expo/ma
>> >i will NOT go long this mkt but re short@ 555-560nya
>> >fundamently the mkt is at its best reading in 2.5 years (projected
earning
>> >growth based on cost of production labor and material ,shipping and
>> >marketting)
>> >but we must visit 450-475 nya before the new rally starts for real
>> >
>> >happy trading
>> >Ben
>> >p.s
>> >for the week sep sp low@xxxx and hi@xxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
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