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RTers:
I would like you all to know that I greatly value the opportunity to
"listen in" on the various comments and opinions expressed via the RT
Disscussion group. As a relative newbie to trading (I've been intensely
observing Mkts for about 2 yrs., and actively position trading for about 9
months), I can say that this group has been invaluable to me as a "mentor"
(of sorts), as one of many sources of wide ranging opinion, and as an
encouragement to begin wading into the ocean of TA. To wit: I recently
began the online Elliot Wave course at EW International. It's surely too
early yet for me to embark on my own analysis from scratch, but my efforts
are starting to bear a little fruit, I think...when I looked at the daily
chart for last friday, it looked to me like an example right off the text
page of a classic 5 wave pattern, except (importantly?) the pattern was
moving down instead of up, ie: lower lows and lower highs.
My questions to the group are:
1. Granted the the Ewave is fractal in nature, but is it meaningful to look
at patterns as short as one day?
2. If the observation is valid, could it be yet another indication that the
fundamental psycology of the market has undergone a sea change?
In any case, today's DJIA price action would seem to indicate that the "buy
on the dips" crowd is conspicuously absent from the mkt. this time around.
For what it's worth, this looks, to my novice eye, like a RE-EMERGENCE of a
lower low-lower high trend that appeared briefly in (about) 11/97 or 12/97
(I'm working from memory), which I believe has been this markets true
character all along. That trend has been distorted by the tsunami of cash
we have seen in what I like to call the "Hyper-liquidity" mkt of recent
months. Is it possible that that's where the true support is (ie: ~7500 and
not 8200 or 8500 as I've heard stated here and elsewhere)?
Well, food for thought perhaps, but it seems to me a high probability that
the time where pyramid shorting becomes a sensible strategy is just around
the next corner on the DJIA. Definitely time for eyes and ears to be wide
open, always time for caution.
Kudos to those who called for a top in July 24-28 timeframe, looks like you
MAY be right! Keep up the fine work, RTers, I for one need your input!
John Stevenson
Ottawa, Canada
P.S. I hereby pledge NEVER to delve into the political arena on the RT
Group again!
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