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RE:fdates



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The amazing thing is that if you offered the W-Date as the "secret to unlocking the  market's hidden order", I'm sure you'd get a healthy subscriber base.  Hey, if you don't do it, Jake Bermstein or Don Fishback probably will!

  -  Stuart

>>> "Alan Sears" <asears@xxxxxxxx> 07/15 2:48 PM >>>
I am re-sending this as I never saw it posted and a lot of people
are asking the same question

>
>What in the heck are WDates???
>


Wow, I have opened a can of worms here !

My post was simply meant as a lighthearted parody of fdates :)

My "extremely accurate" W-dates are simply Wednesday-dates
as noted in my initial message, the blue bars on the chart are
simply Wednsdays !  No secret, no membership required to get
these highly accurate turning points. Although for those interested
I could setup a subscription based service where I would email
everyone Tuesday to advise them in advance that the following
day was a W-Date  <G>  ie: Wednesday  :)

Using the exact rules of +/- 1 bar and the high / low not being violated
for 3 days following (Same as Fdate rules).  Wednesday has a hit
rate of 80% or better !
Did I pick Wednesday at random ?  NO
I ran tests on 20 years of historical data for many markets to arrive
at this conclusion.  Monday & Friday had a hit rate of 50-60%
and Wednesday was consistently above 80% for all markets
tested.
Why did I do this ?  To prove to myself and others that methods
such as fdates are no better than random.
Did I prove this ?  I think so, who would have guessed that
using Wednesday as a pivot date using fdate rules would
give equal or better results ?  :-)

What I did was setup a spreadsheet to identify ALL pivots
that met fdates rules.  Example: there may have been 3000
pivots in a data file which met this criteria, 80% of these occured
on  Wednesday +/- 1 bar.  I found the results to be statistically
significant.
Previous examples of Bean Oil & Sp500 proved my findings
Attached is a chart of cocoa showing the same amazing
accuracy !