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Hello all
That upper trendline of April to June also comes in at the Spx 1119 area.
Very important level.
I've got no trouble feeling the long term and very short term is up. We came
down yesterday for a nice little retest, just above the previous day's lows
and completed a short term 5 wave move I believe. We also have a very nice
H&S bottom on the Dow starting from the 27th, and it's one of diamond patterns
that has shown up quite a bit this past year. It's a H&S bottom with what
also looks like a H&S top with two heads. I see it quite often in all time
frames and it is fairly reliable. This is a pretty big one, lasting three
trading days, implying a good bounce to at least the double headed top at
about Dow 9000. After that expected bounce, I'm not quite sure what's going
to happen. If we get to Dow 9000 or close, we will have a possibly very
bearish set-up. Actually it's not possible, it will be a bearish set up with
everything from the low on the 24th (early in the day) looking like a complex
correction abc-X-abc. No guarantee we drop like a rock, but the setup is there
I think. It will be the retest of the expected bounce today that's critical,
and that level of Spx 1119, or just below. This may not all happen today, but
it is a little ominous. I'll call this intermediate term, or a two week
period.
There are plenty of good arguments for a continued rise right though the
danger area I mentioned and straight on up, after all, that is an extremely
attractive bottom at Spx 1119 (trendline, 62% retrace and all that). I'll put
it this way. If we happen to get to Dow 9000, or even get close, I be firmly
in the camp of "I haven't got a clue what's next"
Longer term we will go up after the entire correction from April ends. I
believe we're in the C wave of that move, and this is the markets chance to do
some damage, but in my view only over a week or two period, if at all.
Peter
http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Comment.htm
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