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A totally unscientific observation, even trivial, but interesting :
The 'buy the dips' crowd has collided with the 'sell the rallies'
crowd, I still believe the longs will prevail this time. In any case,
I think this portends violent action ahead, it's war!
-----Original Message-----
From: G.John Boggio <boggio@xxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, July 28, 1998 6:23 AM
Subject: MKT SymWave Update SPU8 7/28/98
>Realtraders,
>
>About two weeks ago I posted a message titled, "MKT SymWave for the SPU8
7/16/98 Part 1" in which I gave a complete symmetrical wave analysis of the
S&P market index. In that post, I indicated that I was following a wave
magnitude that measured 55.7 points (based on the S&P Futures contract,
SPU8). I have enclosed a snipit of that post directly below:
>
>With that said, let's look at chart SYST716D, a 15 minute chart. Let's
begin with the Wave 'a' high on 6/10/98 at 1139.70. The wave 'b' low
occurred on 6/15 at 1084.00. This decline measures 55.7 points and if we
calculate the leeway, we get a range of 44.56 - 66.84 points. Therefore,
considering that the SPU8 has rallied over 100 points from its June low, it
is not to unrealistic to expect that our next decline of any significance
could/should fall within our symmetrical target of 55.7 point +/- 11.14
points. Further, if you add this 55 point move to the TOP of the Wave 'a'
high, you get approximately 1195 on the SPU8 and suggests that this current
rally is close to exhaustion. Thus, if this market does not go much higher
than our closing high of today (7/16/98 at 1193.50), and a decline ensued, a
55 point symmetrical decline plus our leeway, would take us back to
approximately the 1148.94 to 1126.66 on this contract. Further, I have
included a Fibonacci retracement scale on this chart and it too indicates a
50% Fib retracement at the 1138 level. Combine this with classical chart
formation analysis of old highs acting as new support levels and again we
have confluence in the 1140 area. Finally, since this rally has been
extremely strong, I would be a buyer as soon as the market declined to the
minimum leeway area so as not to miss the next leg up, thus forming a Wave
'd' bottom and a new go long entry signal (near the 1150 area which also has
a 38% Fibonacci support level associated with it).
>
>In the above snipit, I stated, at that time, the current high was 1193.50
and based my calculations on that number. As we now know, the market put in
its high a day and a half later at the 1199.40 level. Therefore, all we
would have to do is recalculate our target zone based on that new high.
Simply, 1199.40 - 55.7 = 1143.70. Note our leeway of 11.15 points does not
change and therefore, we get a recalculated target zone on the SPU8 of
1154.85 to 1132.55.
>
>I
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