|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
In a message dated 98-07-26 19:49:32 EDT, bruceb@xxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<<
How can you be so sure? What is your economic evidence? It surprises me
that so many people on this list making posts under the CRASH heading are so
sure that things are no different today than in the past. I'd like to give
you all just two pieces of concrete evidence (among dozens) that WE ARE
living under a new paradigm, and the result COULD be that economic cycles
(recessions) are dead. Again, I'm not saying these things are absolutely
true, I'm just trying to get the persistent pessimists on this list to think
"outside the box" and open their minds to the possibilities of a "new
economic order."
>>
Bruce you make some good points in your post, but all the technology in the
world can't contol human behavior when it becomes irrational.
Particularly when it is tinged with societal arrogance.
Japan is a good example.
They as a nation became arrogant in the late 1980's and have paid the price in
the 1990's.
They paid a dear price for their"long view" when it came to Real estate
purchases here in the States/Hawaii. Look at just the $$ loss they experienced
on Rockefeller (spelling?) Center in New York alone.
Yet the their strength in manufacturing prowess has not diminished.
Stength in one technological arena does not insure invulnurability in
another.
Our next major recession may be triggered by real estate as well.
Most major corporations moved people around for years who purchased larger and
larger homes to avoid capital gain taxes. The law has recently been changed
but we as a society are still building and buying under the old set of
"rules". Could we be creating those "Old Victorian Barns" that no one will
want by the year 2020-2040?
A real possibility.
>From my perspective it makes little difference what happens.
My job as a trader is not to predict the next market crash.
My job is to identify the primary trend when it has made itself known and
position myself in such a fashion to make a reasonable profit from it.
At any point in time I may exercise caution, because I percieve "irrational
exuberence", but in my mind a real trader recognizes that calling tops and
bottoms is for suckers.
I may probe for a top or bottom, but when I do it is always with a predefined
risk.
a very different strategy indeed.
So the answer to the question "Will the Market crash in the next two years?"
is one of the following.
1) Yes it will
2) No it won't
3) I don't know and I don't care, because I am disciplined enough to make some
profits regardless of the direction of the markets I chose to trade.
All the best that life can offer
Terry
|