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Gentlemen,
The only way a "walk forward" system has any validity is if all the
market entry signals as well as the stop losses are posted and published
before entering the market. This method is far more real than the CFTC
and NFA required VAMI or CTA diaclosure.
Paul Brittain
http://www.tradeblt.com
bshumake wrote:
>
> To All RealTraders:
>
> I have apparently misused the term walk-forward testing, when I should have
> said "paper trade" or "simulated trading." All my we site is doing is
> taking a purely mechanical trading system that I developed and is now "paper
> trading" the signals generated by it for all to see. The system is not
> being change or optimized in any way. Please note that I have NOT used
> optimization in the development of this system. So I guess I am not
> "walk-forward" testing this system, I am just hypothetically trading the
> signals it generates to see if it makes money and inviting everyone to
> watch. The system lives or dies by it's own merits, but I am not trying to
> optimize it. Just paper trading to see if it makes money. Sorry for the
> misused term, I did not mean to cause such confusion. Now...let's see what
> happens with these paper trades.
>
> All the Best !
> Bill Shumake
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Bill Bancroft <bancroft@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Tuesday, July 07, 1998 4:02 PM
> Subject: Re: Walk-forward. What is it.
>
> >Walk-forward testing is where one optimizes a system over the most recent
> >time-period and then uses the parameters generated by the optimization for
> >the next time period. For example, consider a simple moving average
> >crossover system. It buys when the price is above the average, and sells
> >when price is below the average. Let's say we want to use walk-forward
> >testing to arrive at the length of the average. We would take the last
> >year's of data and optimize to find out what moving average length was the
> >most profitable. We would then trade that moving average for this coming
> >year. At the end of this year (and every future year), we would repeat
> this
> >process. So we could be trading a 10-day average in 1998, but in 1999, we
> >could be trading a 20 day average.
> >
> >Regards,
> >
> >Bill Bancroft
> >
> >BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
> >
> >> I have never understood this walk forward stuff and a quick search of the
> >> web turned up nothing. Would anyone care to elaborate.
> >>
> >> Brent
> >>
> >> > Walk forward is a hoax and a sad one at that. Walk forward means to
> >> reoptimize the system on new
> >> > data as the new data is available.
> >
> >
> >
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