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To all RealTraders:
Perhaps, I have misused the term walk-forward testing. I simply mean to take
the trading signals as they come and apply the system as it is and see if it
continues to make money from this point forward. ( sort of paper trading via
web site for all to see ) But please understand the system is NOT being and
will NOT be changed from it's current form . It will live or die on it's
own merits as it now exists. I use NO optimization in my mechanical
trading system, in development or implementation. I do not think
optimization is a sound approach to trading. The mechnical trading system
signals are all based on logic and not at all on optimized parameters of any
kind. Thanks for your interest. I hope this clears up my misuse of the
term walk-forward testing, I suppose I should have just said "paper
trading" or " simulated trading." In any event please continue to check in
on the site ( www.our-town.com/~bshumake ) and let's see what happens.
All the Best !
Bill Shumake
-----Original Message-----
From: Bob Fulks <bfulks@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Tuesday, July 07, 1998 6:18 PM
Subject: Re: Walk-forward. What is it.
>At 2:16 PM -0600 7/7/98, BrentinUtahsDixie wrote:
>
>>I have never understood this walk forward stuff and a quick search of the
>>web turned up nothing. Would anyone care to elaborate.
>>
>>
>>> Walk forward is a hoax and a sad one at that. Walk forward means to
>>> reoptimize the system on new data as the new data is available.
>
>The concept is to test the system as you might have used it in the past.
>Pretend you are at the beginning of 1997. You optimize your system on data
>up until that date. Then you use those settings and simulate trading
>through the first half of 1997 and see how it would have worked. Then you
>reoptimize for all data up to that new date. Then simulate trading up until
>the beginning of 1998, etc.
>
>You are in effect pretending that you started all this at the beginning of
>1997 with no knowledge of the future. The dates are arbitrary in the above
>example.
>
>Bob Fulks
>
>
>
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