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Greetings A.J. and all,
First off, I feel obliged to apologize for having edited your letter into
this severely limited reproduction and I must admit that you make some good
points. But I do disagree with your (implied) assessment of today's crowd
being different than their predecessors of 1929 (or, for that matter, 1720 -
a far worse crash than any other in history).
What makes you so sure that, since the crowd is different, human nature is
different too? Human nature doesn't seem to have changed in the past 1000
years, so the same insanity can and probably will repeat.
1929 was child's play compared to the decline we're facing, IMO.
Unless I go to my deathbed having been proved wrong, ALL markets suffer
corrections, and I'm inclined to think that the bigger the run-up, the more
devastating the collapse, whether sudden or prolonged.
The collective conciousness (or in this case, unconciousness), is what
propels a market mania to a final top, and the change from optimism to
pessimism (for whatever reason) is what causes the selloff preceeding a
crash. If the first thought that comes to mind for some of you is
''programmed trading", let me remind you who it was who programmed the buy
and sell criteria; just another human being who happens to be subject to
his/her own particular expression of the group conciousness, a fellow victim
of human nature.
Good luck to all who give credence to this "New Paradigm"
Dennis C.
dconn@xxxxxxxxx
-----Original Message-----
From: A.J. Carisse <carisse@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Date: Thursday, June 11, 1998 11:29 PM
Subject: Re: MKT - The "Big Picture"
>
>There's always a lineup of "experts" willing to make these sort of
>prognostications. Frankly, most of them are out of touch with how >markets
really work, especially those of today.
>
>...if you look at a daily chart of the
>SNP, there isn't anything to be alarmed about.
>
>Long term, there isn't any reason why stocks can't rise close to their
>current rate for the next 10 years at least.
>
>... things certainly have changed in the last few years.
>
>[Human behavior has] changed quite a bit, but that's beside the >point.
>
>... the "crowds' of yesteryear aren't the "crowds" of today.
>
>Regards,
>A.J.
>
>
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