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I couldn't help putting in some perceptions of my own. There is no criticism
in my words. Just attaining myself to the facts. I made two very interesting
observations about Bill Williams. One is from his book and the other one from
his web site where he publishes an equity curve of a portfolio of some
securities and sells his daily calls for the same markets@ $5.00 per
security/day. I have to confess that at the beginning I used to like the guy.
In his book (Trading Chaos) he starts out with an interesting approach but
when he started calling '"Swings" as "Fractals" I started to think to myself:
"Wait a minute.Something is not right here" (to the people who did not read
the book what B.W. calls FRACTALS is a simple SWING formation with a power of
two i.e. one high preceded and followed by two lower highs). But what really
intrigued me was that after all the Elliott Theory and "Fractals" stuff
lecturing he finished up with his Profitunity Sheets (designed to track all
the pre and post trade conditions) and guess what was the ONLY indicator he
recommends tracking? OLL SIMPLE TRIPLE MOVING AVERAGES of different lengths.
Another thing that surprised me was that when he started out his advisory
services on his web page he had a mixed portfolio of stocks and commodities he
was calling the shots for and posting the equity curve daily. I happened to
log in on his page right on the first week when he started out and thought
that this would be a good opportunity to track the "Profitunity." Guess what?
The Equity curve started nose-diving and my interest being commodities, I
checked out for the results of those.
Practically all losers. For the first weeks he still came up with some excuses
(about the equity drop) saying it was expected and such. After following his
results DAILY for some weeks I gave up because it seemed that his approach was
in a real losing streak incapable in generating any profits (on the
commodities - his stocks positions look OK). What was my surprise after coming
back to check out his page a few weeks later that his equity curve was hitting
$40M. When I looked closer, all trades for all commodities had simply been
TAKEN OFF.
I sent them an e-mail explaining that I had been tracking the positions and
all of a sudden NO COMMODITIES any more. WHY?
They simply said that commodities were generating too many losses so they
decided to eliminate them from the portfolio. Is this a serious company????
I can understand that you are entitled to stop trading loosing issues but what
you are not entitled to as a CPA is to omit previously traded instruments to
ARTIFICIALLY increase the figures of your equity and let alone when these
figures are designed to provide profitability levels for prospects. I am very
disapointed with Bill Williams. By the way there is a name for this kind of
procedure.
Good Trading for all
Robert K.
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