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<<Elliot may have had tremendous insights on how markets work, but the
concepts he developed did not, nor when you consiser it carefully, could
not, forecast price movement. And that's a fact! They may do a mass of
other very useful things, but EW does not forecast price movement.>>
Poppy cock.
I would suggest when used in conjunction with a heavy dose of Fibonacci it
does a marvelous job.
The problem I feel is that this wonderful phenomenon is very poorly applied,
and many have been poorly guided by some of the well know names, writing books
that have far more to do with "scare mongering" and marketing, than honest
technical analysis.
Elliott wave cannot be programmed for computer use, and any attempt to do so
is bound to fail. The basic concept is that waves continue to unfold,
exhibiting different characteristics as time passes, and as a new phase of the
developing cycle unfolds. The events of 1929 or 1987 or any other
"significant" event are part of waves that have completed. The market behavior
during those, or any other period is gone, finished, and will never be
repeated. From an Elliott Wave perspective it is ludicrous to expect a graph
that appears similar to the run-up into1929 or 1987 to unfold in a similar
manner. It just can't happen. Waves of these large sizes don't duplicate.
Elliott himself refered to the concept of "alternation", the behavior of
"being different". You can't program "being different next time". Don't you
find it unusual that every major correction since the late 1700s has become
smaller and smaller in its' percent of market retracement. The only
repetition is that the markets do not behave as it did in the past.
With properly applied Elliott rules, channels, trendlines, and attention to
money managment, I would suggest Elliott Wave is a viable alternative to fixed
systems that work so well in backtesting, but for some reason don't prove to
be worthwhile as time passes.
My 2 cents.
Peter
http://tiger.golden.net/laird/Comment.htm
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