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Just ran into this post in another discussion group. It was submitted by Richard Gawel.
Food for thought to those of us (myself included) who include Elliott waves in considering positions:
To quote Mandelbrot directly:
This section devoted to miscellanea is as good a place as any to
mention Ralph N. Elliott (1871 - 1948). A former peripatetic accountant
and expert on cafeteria management, he studied Fibonacci, the Secrets of
the Great Pyramid and the prophecies of Melchi-Zedik, and in 1938
announced a great "discovery," a "Wave Principle" that "really
forecasts". A claim that he was a precursor of the use of fractals in
finance prompted me to scan Elliott 1994. It is true that some of
Elliott's diagrams are qualitatively reminisent of certain self-affine
generators of the kind studied in Section 4 of Chapter E6. That is, they
embody the wisdom present in Swift's qualitative metaphor quoted earlier
in this section, but nothing more. Elliott's work fails the requirements
of objectivity and repeatability: in his own words, "considerable
experience is required to interpret [it] correctly" and "no
interpretation [is] valid unless made by [him or his direct licencees]."
Comments?
Asher Landesman
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