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Unfortunately, I do own their entire software line. My boss (high-net
worth individual) got hooked on the advertisements and bought $10,000 worth
of software. It was my job to confirm their results. I even
went down to Sarasota to meet and talk with the Microstar staff.
Here is what I learned:
<P>1. They have no research department. They paid some professor
to write the code, but he doesn't work for the company now. I asked
them exactly how their relative strength model worked, and they could not
answer me. Not because it was proprietary, but because they didn't
know. How can you sell systems when you don't even know how they
work? I was disgusted.
<P>2. Many of their advertisements quote performance statistics that are
unrealistic in their assumptions. Here I am talking about commissions
and slippage (especially on their futures packages). Their relative
strength models suffer from selection bias. Anyone can build a model
that makes 50% a year over the past 10 years if you only switch between
Intel, Microsoft, GE, Dell, and Compaq. Now, I am exaggerating, but
you get the idea.
<P>The only system I have found to have merit is the MIRAT Stock Market
Timing System. They didn't even develop it--they got it from Tools
for Timing.
<P>My advice to everyone is to do the homework for yourself--if it sounds
too good to be true, it probably is. They do not have a return policy,
and the software is not cheap. Ask lots of questions.
<P>Bill Bancroft
<P>MR Associates International wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Just received
a postcard advertisement from Microstar Research & Trading Co. featuring
their INDIGO softare package. Anyone have experience with Indigo?</FONT></FONT> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Thanks!</FONT></FONT> <FONT COLOR="#000000"><FONT SIZE=-1>Mike
R</FONT></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE>
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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Apr 26 10:46:02 1998
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From: "Walt Downs" <knight@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: MKT TIMING-Subjective Interpretation
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>David Cicia wrote:
>
>>What I'd like to see is specific correlations and precise indications,
>>not subject to subjective interpetation.
Ron wrote:
>
>>The above quote was used in a post about astrology
>While the quote itself was directed at astrology, could it not apply to
>virtually every technical indicator, or even Delta
<snip>
>I might interpret a stochastic one way and you another. Or, you might
>interpret a RSI one way and I another way.
Norman might interpret the stars one way and Arch Crawford another.
>SUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION!!
>
>Is there such a thing as specific correlations that stand up??
***************************************************
Ron,
Sure, there are applications that are totally quantifiable:
In the case of Stochastics and RSI, usually you are talking about
*divergence* rather than Correlation (Oscillators measure momentum
and try to determine weakness and strength relative to buying and
seling pressure.)
Example Mechanical Stochastic:
Rules:
IF SlowD and FastK are greater than OB level
AND FastK is greater than SlowD
THEN impending selling condition exists.
IF impending selling condition exists
THEN begin
IF FastK crosses under SlowD
THEN Sell on the open.
For BUY signals use the OS level and look for the FastK to cross
over the SlowD from below.
A more sophisticated trading model can be built pretty quickly by
adding filters for more complex divergences (Like looking for a
series of divergent OB/OS peaks or troughs in price versus the
Stoch, and/or filters that measure strength of trend and state of
market (trending or non-trending etc.), or looking for "confirmation"
of a SELL signal by stipulating that the FastK must also violate the
OB level to the downside....etc.
Regarding Astronomical signals and objective correlation, the
subject can become complex very quickly.
A QUICK AND DIRTY ASTRONOMY PRIMER.
We'll assume that we don't have time to adequately study
astronomical relationships based on aspect, opposition,
angle and their subsets.
The only approach we can take, is to apply a "quantifiable mean"
In other words, we'll find the average, or points of intersection of
ALL planetary phenomena.
Here's some sneaky thoughts on how to do it:
LUNAR ASPECT
Phases of the Moon are totally quantifiable, and usable.
As the nearest planet it is logical to assume it's immediate effect on
the markets(people) may be greater than more subtle planetary occurences.
TIDAL CHARTS:
Once again, totally quantifiable, also having the benefit of natural
incorporation of influences of Sun and other planetary bodies. (To
a certain degree.).
CIRCADIAN RHYTHM
This is the organic "clock" by which all biological organisms
operate. We wake, sleep and reach emotional and physical
highs and lows based on this rhythm. If one asserts that all
humans and events are, to a certain extent, controlled by the
planets, and that this trait is endemic all the way down to the
molecular level, then circadian rhythm may well represent the
astronomical "mean" of all that affects us.
Lunar Cycle: 28 days (on average)
Tidal Cycle: Hourly, or taking only High and Ebb tides.
Circadian Cycles:
Physical Cyce: 23 days
Emotional Cycle: 28 days
Mental Cycle: 33 days
With the quantifiable means, traders can now build indicators such
as cyclical oscillators. From there, it's just a matter of testing 'em
through various filters for market correlations. (Remember, you're
not dealing with an indicator that is "price driven" here, so you'll
need a starting point for the study. It's probably best to set the
cyclical starting point to the date that the market first started trading,
or the date of what you feel is an historic astronomical occurrence.)
Again, this is an extremely simplistic approach, and is not meant to
replace more complex study of astronomical market correlations.
Also, Ron you are confusing *astrology* and *astronomy*. :)
Astology is the somewhat subjective use of the Zodiac to
determine future circumstance based on planetary alignment
at date of birth. Astronomy is the mathematical interpretation of
the planets as they move, and their mathematical relation to
each other. It is a very beautiful and exact mathematical science.
Predominately, I trade based on filters I have developed that
observe human psychology. No planetary filters. All psych and
quantifiable math. Yet, Norm and I have wound up looking at
the same markets at the same time so often, that it would
be foolish to say that there isn't some quantifiable connection.
Walt Downs
CIS Trading
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