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Thanks John for doing this interesting survey. Please group
participate!!!!! One thing that the result led me to believe was the
issue of psycology. Because the mechanical traders were so much more
profitable, it is clear that the elimination of descision making is a
generally positive thing. When a descision needs to be made when it
come to ones money, emotions get in the way. It is very difficult to
be completely unattached to your hard earned money. I thing this is
apparent in the survey. Any ideas????
RJC Morning Dew Trading Co.
John Brown wrote:
>
> RT:
>
> The survey results are in. Thanks to all who participated. Here is
> the output.
>
> (Criteria for survey repeated below for anyone who would like to review.)
> -----------------------------
> 70 members of this list responded.
> -----------------------------
> Category 1. Discretionary, all or partially, technical tool indicators
> or forecasting oriented.
>
> 40 in category
> 17 of 40 were 12+
> --------------------------------
> Category 2. Discretionary, all or partially, not indicator based,
> emphasis on chart analysis or math or numbers.
>
> 19 in category
> 10 of 19 were 12+
> ---------------------------------
> Category 3. Indicator based. No discretion, 100% mechanical, with trader
> observation and application of mechanical rules.
>
> 6 in category
> 6 of 6 were 12+
> ----------------------------------
> Category 4. As in #3, but not indicator based.
>
> 0 in category
> 0 12+
> ------------------------------------
> Category 5. 100% mechanical with computer generated signals for entry
> and exit. No observation required other than response to computer alert.
>
> 5 in category
> 3 of 5 12+
> ---------------------------------------
>
> Thanks again,
>
> John Brown
>
> zzzzzzzzzzxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzzzooooooooooxxxxxxxxxx.......>>>>>>>>>
> > SURVEY PROCEDURE
> >
> > (DEADLINE MIDNITE PST WEDNESDAY)(April 15)
> >
> > Following is a summary of the survey procedure. Following this summary, there
> > will be an elaboration to hopefully clarify details, so it should be easy to
> > determine what your trading approach category is, and if you exceed the
> > survey profit threshold. Then again at the end the suvey submission instructions
> > will be repeated. Remember the criteria are cut and dry, based on following
> > definitions.
> >
> > SURVEY RESPONSES GO TO FOLLOWING ADDRESS:
> >
> > survey@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > ONLY ONE REPLY PERPERSON.
> >
> > IN BODY OF EMAIL REPLY DESIGNATE CATEGORY 1,2,3,4 OR 5 AS BEST DESCRIBING YOUR
> > APPROACH TO TRADING. (FOR MOST THIS IS ALL THAT IS REQUIRED FOR SURVEY.)
> >
> > IF 12 PLUS APPLIES TO YOU FOLLOWING DESIGNATION IS ALSO MADE IN BODY OF EMAIL.
> > DESIGNATE 12 PLUS IF YOUR AFTER EXPENSE PRFOITS FROM TRADING 3/31/97-3/31/98
> > EXCEEDED 12,000.00. IF NOT 12 PLUS, NO DESIGNATION IS MADE.
> >
> >
> > 5 CATEGORIES OF TRADING APPROACHES
> >
> > The following five categories will be definitive for the purpose of this survey.
> > Simply determine which category best describes your own approach to trading.
> > The definitions are lengthy, in an attempt to answer all possible questions
> > and be all inclusive of just about any approach one might use.
> >
> > (Note: we know that there may be may different ways to break down categories
> > of approaches to trading. For a survey design some decision must be made to
> > draw the lines and go with it. The attempt here is to differentiate some
> > idea among subjective vs. objective approaches, and "technical indicator"
> > vs "chart analysis/common sense, or number based" approaches to trading.
> > What we have settled upon with the following definitions will be good enough
> > for useful conclusions, and should be adequate to fit anyone's approach.
> > So please don't worry about splitting hairs. The same applies to our profit
> > threshold. Obviously lots of arguments could be made for higher or lower values,
> > or the preference for % based return, different account sizes, etc. No way to
> > have all. Our simple criteria will be good enough for useful conclusions. So,
> > again no need to split hairs.)
> >
> > DETERMINE YOUR CATEGORY AND REPLY WITH CATEGORY NUMBER IN BODY OF YOUR EMAIL
> > REPLY.
> >
> > SURVEY RESPONSES GO TO FOLLOWING ADDRESS:
> >
> > survey@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > 1.Many software derived indicators, and/or any subjective judgement . (No
> > need to split hairs about what is an indicator or not. The ones common in
> > software programs, like TS, SC, MS, FS, Ensign, Apsen, or NP, Get, OT, WW,
> > etc. Canned, programmed, no matter.)
> > Also, whether or not you use indicators, if you approach allows for any
> > judgement, either subjective application, or somewhat objective, but sometimes
> > override, or pick and choose trades. This category includes mechanical systems,
> > if the user overrides signals, or picks and chooses signals.
> > (Note. Survey is meant to be cut and dry. If you follow mechanical or objective
> > rules 90% of the time, or your method is "95%" objective, you still are in
> > category #1, since your approach uses some subjectivity.) This category
> > includes all of the geometric techniques and the more subjective oriented
> > "forecasting turns" approaches. Gann, Elliott Wave, cycles, astrological, etc.,
> > are in this category, unless the application has been strictly objectively
> > quantified to the extent that it has been fully mechanized, such that it could
> > be automatically traded by any trader with the written rules or software
> > automated signals. In that case, a trader using these tools might fit into
> > categories #3 or #5.
> >
> > 2. Not indicator based. Using chart only, or pivot numbers, or some other
> > numbers (Fib, chart support resistance, simple trendlines, chart analysis and
> > "common sense", which may include some fundamental thinking (Reports'
> > influences, etc.). As in #1, also using judgement, either subjective application,
> > or somehat objective, but sometimes override, and choose trades. This
> > category includes mechanical systems, if the system is chart or number based,
> > (but without software derived technical indicator tools) and the user overrides
> > signals, or picks and chooses signals.
> >
> > 3.Indicator based. Strictly no ambiguity 100% mechanical application of rules
> > which have been thoroughly backtested with 100% objective rules for all entry
> > and exit criteria, that could be universally understood and traded with exact
> > same exit and entry points, achievable by another trader who has read and
> > understood the rules.
> >
> > 4. As in #3, but with no indicators, other than chart,
> > price levels, or mathematical levels. Strictly no ambiguity 100% mechanical
> > application of rules which have been thoroughly backtested with 100% objective
> > rules for all entry and exit criteria, that could be universally understood
> > and traded with exact same exit and entry points, achievable by another trader
> > who has read and understood the rules.
> >
> > 5. Any 100% mechanical system with computer generated signals for entry and exit.
> > (Might be a vendor's TS system, or your own programmed mechanical system, or
> > other software mechanical system generating orders. Or same thing with
> > orders automatically plce with broker assistance, if computer generated aoutomatic
> > signals.) No judgement, the computer beeps or indicates time and
> > price, and trade is taken on every signal, exited on every exit signal.
> >
> > CRITERIA OF PROFITABILITY
> >
> > Our criteria of "profitability" will be simply defined as after expense income
> > at a level that can certainly be considered bare minimum, 12,000.00 from past 12
> > months, 3/31/97 through 3/31/98. That means, after all trading related expenses,
> > data feed or subscriptions, newsletters, systems, seminars, books, methods,
> > advisories, etc., have been paid out, your trading has generated at least
> > 12,000.00. Again, we are cut and dry for the survey. If your profit after
> > all expenses is 11,200.00, close but no cigar. No need to reply to
> > 12 PLUS part of survey. If 12,000.00 profit was made 1/1/97 to 1/1/98,
> > but not 12,000.00 from 3/3/97-3/3/98, again close but no cigar. No need to
> > reply to 12 PLUS part of survey.(A simple definition to avoid rate of return
> > and % on equity debates. All we are looking for is a really low common
> > denominator of what even someone with most modest aspirations might deem
> > justifiable as a full time profession. Less than minimum wage.)
> >
> > WHEN YOU CLICK THE BROWSER BUTTON, IN THE BODY OF YOUR EMAIL REPLY, SIMPLY
> > SPECIFY 12 PLUS, IF YOUR TRADING PROFITS 3/31/97-3/31/98 EXCEEDED 12,000.00
> > AFTER ALL TRADING RELATED EXPENSES.
> >
> >
> > SUMMARY:
> >
> > SURVEY RESPONSES GO TO FOLLOWING ADDRESS:
> >
> > survey@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > IN BODY OF EMAIL REPLY DESIGNATE CATEGORY 1,2,3, OR 4 AS BEST DESCRIBING YOUR
> > APPROACH TO TRADING.
> >
> > IF 12 PLUS APPLIES TO YOU FOLLOWING DESIGNATION IS ALSO MADE IN BODY OF EMAIL.
> > DESIGNATE 12 PLUS IF YOUR AFTER EXPENSE PRFOITS FROM TRADING 3/31/97-3/31/98
> > EXCEEDED 12,000.00.
> > IF NOT 12 PLUS, NO DESIGNATION IS MADE.
> >
> > REMEMBER ONLY ONE REPLY PER PERSON. STRICT CUT AND DRY ANSWERS ACCORDING
> > TO DEFINITONS OF SURVEY DESIGN. THE SUCCESS AND USEFULNESS OF THIS SURVEY
> > FOR ALL OF US DEPENDS ON PARTICIPATION AND HONESTY OF ALL RESPONSES.
> >
> > ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxzzzzzzzzzzzzzzoooooooozzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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