|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hi
Sorry about the delay in replying, I've been away for a few days.
This is an interesting prediction, in that the timeframe is soon enough
to keep in our minds and actually remember whether it is correct or
incorrect.
For what it is worth, I think measuring 15, 30 or 61 year cycles is
hogwash. You cannot verify statistically these so-called cycles because
the sample size is too small. Therefore they fall in the category of
curve-fitting.
However, I will add a caveat - if enough people believe in the
conjunction of these cycles, they could precipitate a fall by causing a
rush of money out of the market - but this would have nothing to do with
the validity of the cycles themselves!
My bet is that we will see at least one large correction this year, and
who knows it may be soon, but the bull market will pick up again.
I await April 20 with bated breath....
Harold
----------
From: Ernie P. Quigley[SMTP:Cycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Saturday, 11 April 1998 13:47
To: RealTraders
Subject: FW:Long Term Bull Market
There is a 30 year cycle measured from the high of december 2, 1968 that
reaches a peak April 20, 1998.
There are two seperate 15 year cycles measured from the low of August 7,
1982 that reach a peak April 20, 1998.
There is a 42 month cycle that reaches a peak on April 20, 1998.
There is a 61 year cycle measured from the March 1937 high that reaches
a peak in April 1998.
Its over folks. The SEC just changed the circuit breakers in time to
assist in the crash.
Ernie
cycles@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
|