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Dent was on CNBC this afternoon. He has revised his upside projection on the
Dow from 18,000-20,000 to 35,000 by 2008, a compounded 15% return. He is
really going out on a limb, though in his defense, he's been very right so
far.
The comments made last week by someone on this list (sorry I forgot your name)
concerning the bull market petering out by 2000-2003 based on demographic
studies are well taken. It certainly doesn't seem possible that the market
will rally to 35,000 by 2008-2010, everyone will sell out and then the market
will fall precipitiously. Since Dent's work is becoming more mainstream now
that he has been right (and he has a new book out, the Roaring 2000's) it
seems likely that an earlier end to the bull market will occur. Or maybe it
goes to 50,000 by 2015. Who knows?
Howard Bernstein
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