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In a message dated 98-04-06 23:22:44 EDT, boggio@xxxxxxxxx writes:
<< On it, you
will clearly notice the 14 period RSI divergent signal that is now present.
This signal has usually proved reliable in the past and should not be
dismissed lightly. >>
I must disagree. IMHO the RSI divergence is no more reliable than chance. It
seems for each time you get the expected outcome, there's an equal chance that
you'll get the unexpected outcome.
Best Regards,
Jerry Rehert (grehert@xxxxxxx)
"Too much information is no information"
Atlanta, GA
@ 12:45 am, April 13th, 1998
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Date: Mon, 06 Apr 1998 23:17:38 -0400
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From: "G.John Boggio" <boggio@xxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: MKT: S&P 4/6/98
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Realtraders,
As many of you know, it was announced earlier today that the largest
merger in history is now in the works between Travelers and Citicorp,
valued at over 70 Billion dollars. Based on this news, the Dow rallied
over 100 points earlier this morning, however, it closed up only 50.
Further, the S&P 500 could not hold its gains and closed down 1.31 points,
while the S&P June futures close down 7.70 on the day. Finally, the NASDAQ
market was a complete loser, declining over 26 points on the day...or the
equivalent of -130 Dow points.
What's my point, basically, I am just noting some interesting divergences
in the averages and on the charts.
I have enclosed a simple graph of the June S&P, 60 minutes. On it, you
will clearly notice the 14 period RSI divergent signal that is now present.
This signal has usually proved reliable in the past and should not be
dismissed lightly. Further, if you take a look at the daily charts, you
too will begin to see overbought divergent signals forming in the RSI,
Stochastics and MACD, but have yet to roll over. Point being, let's pay
attention and not become complacent OR emotional in this most recent stock
market advance.
Side note - Isn't it interesting how over the last two weeks, most of the
analysts on CNBC and those on the nightly business shows, have begun
talking about Dow 10,000 as our next target. But it wasn't until today
that we surpassed Dow 9,000 for the first time!!! It reminds me of last
January's bond market hype. Let me refresh your memory. In January
(1998), 30-year bond yields were in a precipitous decline, going from 7.1%
to below 5.75% in just eight months! Actually, as we broke through that
5.75% level, almost every analyst on T.V. and in the media said that bonds
were going to 5.0%. Well, after dipping below that 5.75% level, yields
abruptly reversed direction with a low of just 5.662%. From that low,
bonds backed up to just over 6%. It has now been 3 months, where's that
5.0% level everybody was touting. Therefore, are we seeing the same thing
taking place in the stock market, taut Dow 10,000 even before we hit 9,000.
Something to think about.
Finally, getting back to the attached chart, I have identified (both
symmetrically and through Fibonacci) a possible target decline based on
today's high. This level correlates to the 1060 area on the June S&P. If
we begin to decline over the next few days, I will elaborate in more detail
on this area as well as some other areas both above and below this 1060
level. But at the present time this is just something to think about.
Hope this helps,
John Boggio
--------------------
For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go to:
Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm
Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
Thank you.
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