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In a message dated 98-04-06 19:01:39 EDT, TProeber@xxxxxxxxxx writes:
<<
Why wouldn't you care? For example, some people on the RT site went
long Beans last week. Oversold or some wave count was the reason. But
S.America was in the middle of a bumper harvest -- and U.S. plantings
were expected(and did) to exceed last year. I read the Ag reports, an
was, of course, already short on the last rally (%R timed the entry). I
just don't know why people think supply/demand in a finite commodity
world doesn't matter >>
Tim
I think ultimately the debate over Tech. vs. Fundamental boils down to whether
one believes that 'other' forces i.e. planetary or whatever hold sway over
widely traded markets. Certainly Elliot did as he found his cycles in all
sorts of arenas. If you are Tech you will beleive the market will behave
according to waves or cycles in a predicable manner and the 'news' will follow
accordingly.
As for beans I think you overstated where the realtraders are. a couple
peoiple mentioned going long but while my cycle work tells me a low is coming
soon I am still on the sideline waiting for the market to tell me if it is
here. And when it comes I am sure there will be plenty of fundamental support.
For instance since you have cheched out the bean market for fundamentals then
surely you know that when Peru gets hit hard by an El-nino their anchovie
harvest gets hammered and soybeans become a substitute feed source for cattle
in place of the anchovies and you would know that Peru is getting hit hard.
Also there are some new uses for beans this year. Also you know that the
planting could still be damaged by El-nino and the summer harvest could be
overly dry because of El-nino- both of which are predicted.
My point is that while I do believe predictable forces move markets, that even
if I didn't I would want far more knowledge than a crop report to say I knew
enough to trade fundamentally.
Eric Moser
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