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At 04:55 AM 4/6/98 +0400, Aleksandr Yermatchenko wrote:
> Hi from Moscow, Russia.
>-----------------------------------------------------------------
> From the last month the economists and financial analysts
> prognose earnings decreasing in the US economy.. However DOW grows up
>and up.... Well,
>this is enough rare situation. It may say that the Market don't "believe"
>economists. Who is wrong? Who making a mistake?
>May be it is like feast during pestilence.
>What are you thinking?
>-----------------------------------------------------------------
>Another one dissonance.
>It is usual that when stock market is up, Gold is down.
>The last two month we can observe another situation:
> It's not usual. ;-)
>But it seems to me that I understand now:
>there had happened changes in this nonlinear system
>STOCK MARKET > BOND MARKET.
>There are
>STOCKS > GOLD > BONDS now.
>So, apprehensions, that discount rate (our congratulations to
>Mr. Alan Greenspan with 72nd birthday) will grow up,
>is the cause of money transfusion in the Gold market like in "sanctum".
>Since discount rate (in our opinion) will not raise before
>summer 1998, the market of Gold will consolidate himself
>at least 2 month yet.
>-----------------------------------------------------------------
>Sorry for my bad English. Successes,
>Aleks. P.S. The situation with earnings will be understandable
> between April, 10--20. I think that 15--30 of April
> will be optimal time for the "entrance" in the US stock
> market (for long or short anyway).
>----------------------------------------------------
> Reach me by ICQ. My ICQ# is 303275 or,
>* Page me online through my Personal Communication Center:
> http://wwp.mirabilis.com/303275 (go there and try it!) or,
>* Send me E-mail Express directly to my computer screen
> mailto:303275@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
Aleksandr:
I hope I speak for all of us here who are for now the main crowd
of this list service:
Keep it up. We enjoy your contributions.
>From my own perspective, I might get involved with gold in the form
of a very respectable mining stock (like Placer Dome of Canada) but
I am not ready to make any bet on new Asian demand for the (precious)
metal for some time.
In the meantime, according to an articel in Barrons 2 major scholars have
stated recently in the Wall Street Journal that the P/E of the stock market
might easily be correctly worth twice what we are paying for the stocks
now.
$24 billion new money went into stocks this last month (into stock funds)
and even if some of this came out of cookie jars or were the result of
many people paying minimum payments of burgeoning credit card debts, the
pressure is clear. The DOW and the NASDAQ composite averages are heading
up another 10%.
It would not surprize me to see a DOW industrial avergage of 11,200 this year.
It might land at 9500 at year end, but that's OK.
Per
petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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