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>John Cappello wrote:
>
>
>By the same token I do not doubt your suggested methodology, it is just
>impossible to teach since it comes from an aquired sixth sense.
John -
>
>If you have to rely on a sixth sense, forget it. I most certainly don't!
>
>All I am pointing out is, that for me trading the T-Bonds, there is no
point
>having a sense (or sensor!) telling me what happened in the past - like the
>indicators I mentioned. I can only make money on what happens in the
>future. As a daytrader, I don't mean some distant future, which I might
>reach for a drawdown I may or may not be able to afford en route. I am
>talking seconds, minutes and hours at the most - definitely never days. I
>like to sleep nights!
>
>Anyway, let me digress with an up-to-date example on USM8 (the only
contract
>I trade):
>
>Take Friday's Unemployment Report Day (with a liquidity of 1,379,744
>contracts traded): Everyone, but everyone thought the market would go up.
>There were three up-days in a row, followed by a major up-move in Globex
>the night before, to set the scene. But on just one contract it was a
large
>bet, before the Report. The market, on my tick chart, moved from 122^06 to
>^27 in one minute - that is $672 if you were right and $672 if you were
>wrong. I don't like trades of that magnitude with odds of a spin of the
>coin. The Report might have had different figures, the result could have
>been violently different. I'm not that sort of gambler!
>
>
>But at the other end of the day, after the market had put in an early and
>precise .618 retracement from the High (indicating it was still bullish,
but
>may not go anywhere) the market, then started, as I call it, "waving a flag
>from the masthead" to put in a lovely double top at 122^27. This was
>directly underneath a solid resistence level and, signifcantly, failing to
>take out the intraday high. The initial .618 retracement would have told
>those who practice 'keen observation' that it was a deep retracement that
>might indicate that the market was not headed higher. In the event, the
>market then went straight down, to close at 122^14 - yielding 13 ticks
worth
>$412, rather more safely than the opening gammit!
>
>Such methodology does not come from a sixth sense, let me assure you.
>Furthermore, it is very straightforward to assimilate. If I really
thought
>it could not be taught, I should not bother with writing a manual, with the
>express idea of such a work teaching people to teach themselves to daytrade
>the T-Bonds!
>
>I attach a .gif file for those who would like to tickle their senses!
>
>Bill Eykyn
>
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