Re: GEN: All indicators lag, don't they?

["Bill Eykyn" <t-bondtrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

>Essentially, I view my indicators as telling me what is going on in
>the higher time frames. If intraday price patterns confirm that
>assessment, I'll take the trade.  If they don't confirm it, I'll stay
>out.  But I WILL NOT take a trade that runs opposite to what my
>indicators are telling me, no matter how convincing the intraday
>pattern.  It's my way of keeping the probabilities on my side.
>
>Bob Hunt
>
As you trade the Bonds, you will have charts to hand.  Look at the last ten
days of action.  The market has traded between a high of 122^22 and a low of
120^01 and during that time it has been all over the place!  A couple of
small up days, a large range day, a reverse and reverse again, up, down,
like a ruddy yoyo!

I cannot see how a large time frame indicator is going to help you on the
intraday trading.  And not to take a trade because the intraday movement is
in the opposite direction of the daily indicator direction, doesn't stack up
for me.  The market may well be going up and the indicator showing this -
but current swing could well be in the opposite direction.

During the days referred to, the market as a whole would have been moving
slightly up, then slightly down and then slightly up again.   On a broader
spectrum, it might be considered in overall congestion, at the level
mentioned.   But the intrady action would be dictated by the relevant
support and resistant points and the need would be to trade between these
areas, quite regardless of what the daily indicator was saying.

For me, what keeps the probabilities on my side is the price action - not an
indicator - as it approaches these areas.  More often than not (and that is
the whole point!) it will show you what it is going to do.   After that it
is a question of timing and money management, which is yet another story...

I only wish I could find an indicator which told me direction in a timely
and honest fashion, just before and not just after, happened.  If you are
position trading over several weeks or months, I am sure it is another
matter, but in time frames of minutes and quarters of an hour, for me (and
my eyesight!) the indicators all lag - and lagging is no use to me.

Any other thoughts?  Any other ideas?  I'd love the indicating indicator -
please send me the .ela file!

Bill Eykyn