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Realtraders,
Attached is a 60 minute chart of the March Silver contract (SI H8) as of
2/24/98 at 9:00am est.
As many of you may know, there has been a lot of interest in this market
over the last few months partially due to an accumulation by Warren Buffet.
This accumulation can easily be seen on the chart and has resulted in a
multi-year high in this commodity.
Aside from the fundamental reasons, it would appear 'technically', that
this market may be in a bottoming process and as such we are looking for
opportunities to go LONG silver.
With that said, I have included my symmetrical wave analysis on this
market which is now suggesting that this most recent pullback is NOW giving
us an opportunity to enter this market. (For more information on symmetry,
please go to the URL links below).
Specifically, we have one major uptrending wave structure with which we
will monitor. This wave structure began with the Wave 1 high which was set
on 12/24/97 at 639.5 and the Wave 2 low set on 1/12/98 at 540.5. This
decline measures 99.0 basis points or 99 cents. To determine our
symmetrical leeway, we will take this 99cents and multiply it by 20%.
Thus, our leeway is +/- 19.8 cents based around the original decline of 99.
Therefore, our target zone for a future decline will fall within a zone of
79.2 to 118.8 cents from a new high.
Ok, with that said, we had a new high, (Wave 3) which took place on
2/5/98 at 740.0. Subsequently, this silver market has pulled back to our
current levels of 635.0 with a low of 629.0 set earlier this morning. If
we measure this decline from the Wave 3 high to the LOW, we get a magnitude
of 111.0 cents, and FALLS WITHIN OUR TARGET ZONE as mentioned above.
Therefore, making this level a Wave 4 symmetrical bottom and issuing an
entry signal for this market. Our protective stop will be placed just
outside the maximum leeway of 118.8 cents or a corresponding level of 621.2
on this March contract (740.0 - 118.8 = 621.2). However, I will note that
at the 616.0 level, we have additional Fibonacci support in this market.
Therefore, you may want to give your protective stop just a little more
room so as to avoid being stopped out, a fraction prematurely.
Finally, in addition to this symmetrically analysis, I have also included
a 14 period RSI oscillator which is also suggesting that this market is
approaching oversold levels in a divergent pattern, obviously a confluent
bullish pattern.
Given this information, it would appear that we have a relatively low
risk entry into this recently explosive market. You may want to do some
further analysis if you too find the above information interesting from a
bullish perspective. As a matter of fact, why don't we make this market
our "Market of the Week" here on Realtraders. I hope to hear other
opinions on this interesting market.
Questions and comments are always welcome,
John Boggio
Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\sysi0224.gif"
For recent commentary and more informations regarding SymWave, please go to:
Commentary: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/disc7_toc.htm
Info regarding SymWave: http://www.realtraders.com/boggio/boggiobio.htm
Thank you.From ???@??? Tue Feb 24 07:53:59 1998
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Date: Tue, 24 Feb 1998 15:17:27 +0000
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From: ric ingram <ringram@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: PSYCH: TradeStation; GEN: Backtesting
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Status:
Hi,
Tradestation
############
I am intigued by all the comments over the last few months about this product.
I am not a user of TradeStation, nor based on various comments will be
likely to become a user.
The software seems, reading between the lines, to be "flakey" - unless run
on an unchanged and dedicated second machine with plenty of memory to make
up for memory "leakage".
Many people appear to have much difficulty with its "easy language" which I
assume is a unfortunately named(?) procedure language.
Now there is reluctance to "suffer through the abuse of dealing with Omega
tech support".
Is there any merit in this product -
or all all its users masochistic?
or is it just misunderstood?
----------------------------
Backtesting
###########
While on the subject of trading software, has anyone good experiences of
software for backtesting a trading system. This must be of common
interest to many or all traders.
Currently I use Excel, and it does the basics for one timeframe on one
market.
As it is not purpose built for backtesting a trading system, it will not,
without specific coding, produce an analysis report on the drawdown
distribution, capital requirements, margin requirements, equity balance,
"z-score"...
Also considering a different time-horizon or data for a second market
requires some reworking.
What do you use and what do you recommend?
Regards, Ric.
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