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richard tobiassen wrote:
>
> hi,
> i have seen guarantees like this before..........usually they depend on you following the system,,,,,,which seems
> reasonable....BUT......if you follow the instructions do you loose more than the guarantee.
> this is always a problem........ask about drawdown
> good trading
> rich t
>
> John Cappello wrote:
>
> > Recently there was interest expressed in the subject and I obtained literature on it.
> >
> > 1.Created by a Virgil DaSilva
> >
> > 2.First time I ever saw anyone claim 100% accuracy.
> > Anyone else with meaningful comments?
John and Richard,
I'm not familiar with DaSilva's work, however, one needs to be
careful of the term "accurate". :)
I have many systems that are 100% accurate, but none that are 100%
PRECISE. :)
"Accurate" , by definition means correct within a given range of
tolerance. If one claims that Bonds will bottom out somewhere
between 000 and 121-00 and then trade up, and Bonds trade to
115-12 and then move up, your statement is 100% accurate.
"Precise", by definition means right on the money. If one says that
Bonds will trade down to 120-31, go no lower and then trade higher,
and Bonds do exactly that, than your statement is precise.
Therefore,uinless Mr. DaSilva's ranges of tolerance are so small as
to border on precision, his statements of accuracy would carry little
weight. :)
Walt Downs
CIS Trading
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