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At 03:17 PM 2/15/98 +1100, David Hunt wrote:
>Chris,
>
>| Isn't this just another attempt to find a holy grail indicator ?
>|
>
>I guess a Choppiness Indicator is a bit absurd on its own -
>you need to combine it with something else. After a while
>most eyeballs will see a market as "Choppy", so a
>Choppiness Indicator may be not useful for the more visual
>disposed of us.
>
>However, the average System/Techie head may want to use a
>Choppiness Indicator as a filter for keeping a simple Trend
>Following System out of harm's way. Then it is useful.
>Or for the flip side to turn to trading the ranges for a
>while with a ranging system.
>Chris is right is that the impulse waves are best to
>trade.
>
>On that note aren't we all a bit complacent about this Iraqi situation.
>The big Astro setup and Eclipse come in in a few weeks.
>The Jan 1991 Ground War started on the Eclipse.
>I think the whole world ain't really on the US Side this time. There is no
>emotional trigger (ie Iraqi invasion of Kuwait) to keep many of the Arab
>nations on side of the US. Any US war action
>could start the entire Islamic World on a Jihad against the Christian
>World. These guys actually
>have a great incentive to go to war for what they believe in. We are in the
>60 year cycle from 1938
>when Hitler started all his bad stuff by stealth and with the agreement of
>many of the Super Powers ie Russia and England while the US turned a blind
>eye until 1942.
>
>Strange that the market was panicking in 1991. This time it doesn't care
>it seems to think that a war
>is a BUY SIGNAL. The US may swat Iraq at the risk of enraging the entire
>Arab/Islamic world. That may
>be bad. But then again we did need a WWII to get out of the depression!!!
>
>David Hunt
>http://homepages.tig.com.au/~adest
>
>----------
David:
You are right about using choppiness as a filter (can I use ADX?)
for no single indicator by itself is that effective (no holy grail).
I don't know what the impulse wave is. Enlighten me please.
As for another desert storm, it's truly no reason for panic.
But we should be cautious and not get caught standing on the cliff
as the lemmings stampede.
Pete
petena9090@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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